Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various futures markets, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping indices, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It provides detailed insights into the supply, demand, inventory, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding trading strategies based on the market conditions. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Tin: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices continue to show a strong performance. Short - term prices are highly volatile due to market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and hold the previously recommended call options [2]. - LLDPE: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [3]. - Coking Coal: The transaction of coking coal in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices fluctuate with futures. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [3]. - Meal Products: The USDA report data is bearish, and beans are under pressure. The domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high, and the market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [4]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: On Tuesday, A - share major indices rose first and then fell. The four major stock index futures contracts also declined with the indices, and the basis of the main contracts continued to rise [5][6]. - News: The Ministry of Commerce proposed to continue imposing anti - dumping duties on imported solar - grade polysilicon from the United States and South Korea. Overseas, the US prosecutor's office launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell, and the US December CPI was in line with expectations [6][7]. - Funding: On January 13, the A - share market trading volume reached a new high, and the central bank conducted a net injection of 3424 billion yuan through reverse repurchase [7]. - Operation Suggestions: It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH with a relatively weak previous increase. For small - and - medium - cap indices, use bull spreads and pay attention to risk prevention [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most treasury bond futures closed higher, and long - term bonds performed better. The yield of major interest - rate bonds fluctuated [8]. - Funding: The central bank conducted a 3586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on January 13, with a net injection of 3424 billion yuan. However, the money market tightened, and attention should be paid to the central bank's subsequent actions [8]. - Operation Suggestions: The bond market is in a volatile market in the short term, lacking a trend. It is recommended to remain on the sidelines for unilateral strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term [9]. Precious Metals - Market Review: The US December CPI was in line with expectations, and the fiscal deficit in December 2025 reached a record high. The CME adjusted the margin setting for precious metal contracts. The prices of precious metals showed a differentiated trend, with silver leading the rise [10][11][12]. - Outlook: Gold is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the medium - long term. Silver is expected to have a rising price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise steadily in the medium - long term. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above the 20 - day moving average, hold long positions in silver above 75 US dollars, and buy platinum and palladium on dips near the 20 - day moving average [12][13]. Shipping Index (European Line) - Shipping Index: As of January 12, the SCFIS European line index rose, and the SCFI composite index fell slightly. The spot price of shipping is gradually entering a downward cycle [15]. - Fundamentals: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year, and the demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - Logic: The futures price of the main contract declined, and the spot price will continue to put downward pressure on the futures [15]. - Operation Suggestions: It is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Copper prices are at a high level, and the downstream operating rate is weak. The medium - long - term fundamentals are good, but the short - term is affected by inventory and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [15][17][20]. - Alumina: The market is in a wide - range shock. The supply is rigid, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - Aluminum: The price is at a high level and fluctuating widely. The market is driven by macro and policy expectations, but the fundamentals are under pressure. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to build long positions [23][25]. - Aluminum Alloy: The cost drives the price up, but the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. It is expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 can be considered [26][28]. - Zinc: The price center has moved up, and the spot transaction is average. The supply is under pressure in the short term, and the demand is inhibited. It is recommended to focus on the support at 23,800 and go long on dips in the long term [30][33]. - Tin: The price continues to be strong. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the short - term price is affected by market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see [33][37]. - Nickel: The news reaction is gradually digested, and the price is mainly fluctuating. It is recommended to reduce long positions on rallies [37][40]. - Stainless Steel: The price is fluctuating narrowly. The cost and demand are in a game. It is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, with a reference range of 13,400 - 14,200 [40][43]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market sentiment is strong, and the price continues to rise. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand has certain resilience. It is recommended to wait and see [44][46]. - Polysilicon: The long positions have reduced their positions, and the price has further declined. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the subsequent production reduction and demand recovery [47][48]. - Industrial Silicon: The price is mainly fluctuating. The supply and demand are both weak in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the production reduction and the change in polysilicon production [50][51]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: The inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation stage, and the steel price is in a volatile pattern. It is expected to fluctuate in January, with a reference range of 3050 - 3250 for rebar and 3200 - 3350 for hot - rolled coils [52][53][54]. - Iron Ore: The supply is facing the off - season, and the port inventory is continuously accumulating. The price is expected to maintain a high - level shock, with a reference range of 770 - 830. It is recommended to operate within the range [55][56]. - Coking Coal: The price of coking coal in Shanxi has risen more than it has fallen, and the transaction has improved. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke before the Spring Festival [57][61]. - Coke: After the fourth - round price cut at the beginning of the year, the price has stabilized. It is recommended to go long on dips and consider the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [62][67]. - Silicon Iron: The cost provides support, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5500 [68][69]. - Manganese Silicon: The external price of manganese ore has generally risen, and the supply - demand situation has improved. It is recommended to try going long on dips, with a bottom support of around 5800 [70][72]. Agricultural Products - Meal Products: The USDA report data is bearish, and the domestic soybean and meal inventory remains high. The market is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern in the short term [73][75]. - Hogs: After the holiday, the demand has declined. It is expected to be in a volatile and bearish pattern in January [76][77]. - Corn: The supply is tight, and the downstream has rigid demand for stocking. The price is expected to be supported, but the increase is limited by policy. It is necessary to pay attention to the farmers' selling mentality and policy implementation [78][80]. - Sugar: The Unica production data is bullish, and the domestic sugar price is expected to maintain a low - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [81]. - Cotton: The USDA report is slightly bullish, and the domestic cotton price has stopped falling and stabilized. The short - term price may enter an adjustment period [84][85]. - Eggs: The terminal inventory has increased, and the market trading has slowed down. The futures price is expected to maintain a low - level shock [88]. - Oils and Fats: Palm oil has risen first and then fallen, and soybean oil and rapeseed oil are affected by various factors. It is recommended to pay attention to the support levels of different oils [89][91][92]. - Red Dates: The spot price is supported, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to short on rallies [94]. - Apples: The market sentiment is strong, and the futures price is rising. The short - term price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory, but the long - term price is affected by consumption. It is recommended to protect long positions with put options [95][96]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The supply is expected to increase under high valuation, and the short - term supply - demand is weak. The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level before the Spring Festival and is expected to be low - bought in the medium term [97][98]. - PTA: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the pre - holiday driving force is limited. It is recommended to follow the raw material price fluctuations. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5000 - 5300 in the short term and be low - bought in the medium term [99][100]. - Short Fiber: The supply - demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material price fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and shrink the processing fee on rallies [101]. - Bottle Chip: The supply and demand will both decrease in January. The absolute price and processing fee will follow the cost fluctuations. It is recommended to take the same strategy as PTA for the unilateral position, and the processing fee of the main contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 350 - 500 yuan/ton [102][103]. - Ethylene Glycol: There is an expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, and the price is under pressure in January. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 for EG2605, conduct reverse arbitrage on EG5 - 9 on rallies, and sell out - of - the - money call options on EG2605 - C - 4100 on rallies [105]. - Pure Benzene: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but the price is still under pressure due to high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and shrink the EB - BZ spread on rallies [106]. - Styrene: It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited under high valuation and weak expectation. It is recommended to pay attention to the short - selling opportunity of EB03 and shrink the processing fee on rallies [107][108]. - LLDPE: The upstream price has increased, and hedging transactions are booming. It is recommended to partially take profit on long positions [109][110]. - PP: The number of maintenance has increased, and the price is relatively strong. It is recommended to hold the position with an expanding PDH profit [110]. - Methanol: Affected by geopolitical factors, the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see [110][111]. - Caustic Soda: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the spot transaction is light. The price is expected to be stable and weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the downstream procurement volume and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [111][112]. - PVC: The export factor amplifies the price fluctuation, and the short - term trading focus is not on supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions in the short term [113][114]. - Urea: The supply - demand pattern remains weak, and the downstream is cautious about high - priced purchases. The price is expected to be in a weak and volatile pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to the production resumption rhythm and downstream demand [116][117]. - Soda Ash: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the price is fluctuating. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion [118][120]. - Glass: The cold - repair and restocking maintain the price strength. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the inventory digestion and supply - demand balance [118][121]. - Natural Rubber: The overseas raw material price is high, and the rubber price is fluctuating strongly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the raw material output in Thailand [121][123]. - Synthetic Rubber: The cost is firm, but the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short term. The BR2603 is expected to run in the range of 11,800 - 12,500. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - level disturbances [124][126].
广发早知道：汇总版-20260114
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-14 01:40