集运早报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - For the EC2602 contract, it is moving towards the delivery logic and is subsequently influenced by the spot market. Its current valuation is neutral, and new entry is not recommended [3]. - The EC2604 contract requires attention to spot prices and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in MSK's cabin opening in week 5 may suppress the futures market, but rush - shipping may occur as freight rates fall, potentially reducing the decline rate in March. Its valuation fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and subsequent corrective market opportunities are worth noting [3]. - Export - tax rebate adjustments are negative for far - month contracts, but far - month contracts are highly affected by geopolitical factors. It is generally recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Contract Data - EC2602: Yesterday's closing price was 1720.4, down 1 - 8%, with a trading volume of 6210 and an open interest of 11862, a decrease of 1482 [2]. - EC2604: Yesterday's closing price was 1199.7, down 6.33%, with a trading volume of 44098 and an open interest of 38770, an increase of 1678 [2]. - EC2606: Yesterday's closing price was 1413.5, down 4.82%, with a trading volume of 2459 and an open interest of 3264, an increase of 328 [2]. - EC2608: Yesterday's closing price was 1529.9, down 2.26%, with a trading volume of 260 and an open interest of 1359, a decrease of 92 [2]. - EC2610: Yesterday's closing price was 1107.4, down 4.04%, with a trading volume of 1672 and an open interest of 7446, an increase of 218 [2]. 3.2 Month - spread Data - EC2502 - 2604: The value was 520.7, with a daily increase of 53.5 and a weekly decrease of 76.4 [2]. - EC2504 - 2606: The value was - 213.8, with a daily decrease of 9.5 and a weekly increase of 27.1 [2]. 3.3 Index Data - SCHIS (updated every Monday, announced on 2026/1/12): The current value is 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period and 3.05% from two periods ago [2]. - SCFI (European line, updated weekly, announced on 2026/1/9): The current value is 1719 US dollars/TEU, up 1.72% from the previous period [2]. 3.4 European Line Spot Situation - Week 3: MSK opened cabins at 2600. Other alliances had a slight decline, with PA at 2600 (YML's one route at 2400), PA at 2800 - 2900 US dollars. The central price was 2750 US dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures [3]. - Week 4: MSK opened cabins at 2700. Other alliances remained stable for the time being, with a central price of 2750 US dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points on the futures [3]. - Week 5: MSK opened cabins at 2400 (a decrease of 300 compared to the previous week), YML quoted at 2650 US dollars, and other shipping companies had not adjusted prices yet [3].