建信期货工业硅日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are relatively neutral, with both supply and demand in a weak - reality stage. The futures price of industrial silicon will maintain an expected range - bound oscillation [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Performance and Outlook - Futures Market: The price of industrial silicon futures oscillated. The SI2605 contract price was 8,635 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.65%. The trading volume was 270,076 lots, and the open interest was 242,469 lots, with a net increase of 3,592 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net increase of 3,963 lots, and the short positions had a net increase of 1,643 lots [4]. - Spot Market: Spot prices remained stable. The price of Sichuan 553 was 9,300 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 was 8,900 yuan/ton; Sichuan 421 was 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,550 yuan/ton [4]. - Outlook: In Q1, the monthly average output is expected to remain at around 350,000 tons. Demand is weak. The operating rate of silicone remains stable without fulfilling the expected centralized production cuts. Polysilicon is in a policy - dominated stage of correcting from anti - involution to anti - monopoly. The industrial chain pressure is transmitted from the bottom up, and the monthly output decreases month - on - month. Industrial silicon inventory is high, production capacity concentration is low, the market performance is dull, and the spot price is weakly stable, making it difficult to break through the upward space [4]. 3.2. Market News - On January 13th, the number of industrial silicon warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 11,128 lots, an increase of 240 lots compared to the previous trading day [5]. - On January 9th, the Ministry of Finance announced on its official website that starting from April 1st, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%, and it was previously reduced from 13% to 9% starting from December 1st, 2024 [5].