原油成品油早报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - This week, crude oil rebounded and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike plans against Iran but has not made a final decision on authorizing a strike. If the US launches a strike on Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. Fundamentally, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high and volatile [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Market Data - From January 7 - 13, 2026, WTI increased from $55.99 to $61.15, BRENT from $59.96 to $65.47, and DUBAI from $58.35 to $61.78. Other related products also showed various price changes [3]. - For example, SC increased by 8.10, OMAN by 1.14, and domestic gasoline increased by 20.00 during the same period [3]. b. Daily News - US media reported that the White House is weighing military options against Iran, but Trump's private attitude is uncertain. Political allies warned of the risks of getting involved in another overseas conflict [3]. - The API crude oil inventory for the week ending January 9 was 527.8 million barrels, far exceeding the expected -223.8 million barrels [3]. - US Energy Secretary Wright said that the US is willing to cooperate with Iran in the oil sector if the Iranian regime collapses [3]. c. Inventory - According to the EIA report for the week of January 2, US crude oil exports increased by 82.3 million barrels per day to 426.3 million barrels per day [3]. - US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.6 million barrels to 1381.1 million barrels per day [3]. - Commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 383.2 million barrels to 4.19 billion barrels, a decrease of 0.91% [3]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 1987.1 million barrels per day, a 1.86% decrease compared to the same period last year [3]. - The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 24.5 million barrels to 4.135 billion barrels, an increase of 0.06% [3]. - US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 633.9 million barrels per day, an increase of 138.6 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [3].