甲醇聚烯烃早报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For methanol, the inland price has bottomed out, and the port is trading on the expectation of large inventory drawdown. However, high MTO开工 is a prerequisite for large drawdown, and currently, MTO profit is average, which restricts the upside of methanol. Venezuelan shipments are expected to be 2 - 3 vessels per month, with an average of 80,000 - 100,000 tons per month. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments, and in the short - term, shipments may remain normal. Also, changes in oil prices should be monitored, as the limited upside of methanol currently is due to weak downstream demand, and if oil prices boost other products, it may lift the price ceiling [2] - For plastic, the futures market is oscillating, while the spot market is stable, and the basis is weak. Crude oil is oscillating, with oil - based and coal - based profits deteriorating. Upstream coal - chemical industries and Sinopec and PetroChina are de - stocking, while social inventory has increased this week. The supply of standard products is growing rapidly, and the supply of PE in May is expected to have a slightly large pressure [2] - For PP, the futures market is stable, and the basis is weak. Import profit is - 334, and export profit is - 225, with export volume slightly declining. Temporary maintenance plans in the supply side have increased, and the supply in January is flat compared to the previous month. Currently, the overall inventory of PP is neutral, and the supply in May and subsequent months is expected to have a slightly large pressure [3] - For PVC, the basis is - 330, up 10 compared to the previous period. This week's trading volume is average. The upstream is stable, with an operating rate of 79.7%, up 1.1% compared to the previous period. Downstream demand is stable. The total inventory level is still moderately high. The current comprehensive profit of PVC is low, and short - term seasonal operating rate recovery is expected. In the long - term, the overall new construction demand in the domestic and foreign real estate markets remains weak, and the medium - to - long - term outlook for PVC is still poor [5] Summary by Commodity Methanol - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of动力煤期货 remained at 801. The price of江苏现货 decreased from 2285 to 2257, a decrease of 28; the price of西北折盘面 decreased from 2443 to 2430, a decrease of 13 [2] - Profit data: Import profit decreased from 8 to - 12, and主力基差 decreased from 0 to - 27 [2] Plastic - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of东北亚乙烯 decreased from 745 to 725. The price of华东LL increased from 6625 to 6825, an increase of 200; the price of华东LD increased from 8800 to 9200, an increase of 400 [2] - Inventory data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 61 to 58, and仓单 decreased from 11540 to 11222 [2] PP - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of山东丙烯 increased from 5770 to 5940, an increase of 170; the price of华东PP increased from 6240 to 6350, an increase of 110 [3] - Inventory data: Two - oil inventory decreased from 61 to 57, and仓单 increased from 15465 to 17575 [3] PVC - Price data: From January 7 - 13, 2026, the price of西北电石 remained at 2400, the price of山东烧碱 decreased from 715 to 695, a decrease of 20, and the price of电石法 - 华东 increased from 4640 to 4710, an increase of 70 [4][5] - Inventory data: Upstream factory inventory increased from 30.9 to 31.3 (in 10,000 tons), and PVC social inventory increased from 111.4 to 116.4 (in 10,000 tons) [5]