建信期货铁矿石日评-20260114

Report Overview - Report Type: Iron Ore Daily Review [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The iron ore market currently faces supply pressure, especially in terms of inventory. However, there are signs of stabilization and recovery on the demand side, and the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand may boost iron ore prices. It is expected that iron ore prices may remain resilient before the Spring Festival [10][11]. 3. Summary by Sections 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Futures Market Performance - On January 13, the main 2605 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated weakly, opened lower and then rose rapidly, and oscillated downward in the afternoon, closing at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 0.24% [7]. - The trading data of other steel and iron ore futures contracts on January 13 are as follows: - RB2605: closed at 3158 yuan/ton, with a change of 0.00%, trading volume of 837,879 lots, and a decrease in open interest of 38,760 lots [5]. - HC2605: closed at 3303 yuan/ton, down 0.09%, trading volume of 404,061 lots, and an increase in open interest of 12,752 lots [5]. - SS2603: closed at 13790 yuan/ton, down 0.54%, trading volume of 256,128 lots, and an increase in open interest of 1,464 lots [5]. - I2605: closed at 819.5 yuan/ton, down 0.24%, trading volume of 311,621 lots, and a decrease in open interest of 1,527 lots [5]. 3.1.2 Futures Market Positioning - The data of the top 20 long and short positions in the black - series futures on January 13 show that for the I2605 contract, the top 20 long positions were 407,433 lots with an increase of 2,991 lots, and the top 20 short positions were 436,454 lots with a decrease of 859 lots, with a long - short difference of 3,850 lots and a deviation of 0.91% [8]. 3.1.3 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - Spot Market: On January 13, the main iron ore overseas quotes decreased by 0.6 US dollars/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port decreased by 2 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - Technical Analysis: The daily KDJ indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is moving downward, with the K and J values turning down and the D value continuing to decline; the red bar of the daily MACD indicator of the iron ore 2605 contract is narrowing [9]. 3.1.4 Future Outlook - Supply: The shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased last week, while the arrivals continued to increase. Considering the end - of - last - year overseas shipment rush, the short - term arrivals are expected to remain at a high level [10]. - Demand: The total output of the five major steel products increased slightly last week, and the daily average pig iron output increased for three consecutive weeks, mainly due to the repair of steel profits. Although the production profits of rebar electric furnaces and hot - rolled coils are still negative, they are close to the break - even point, which boosts the production enthusiasm of steel enterprises to some extent. The subsequent sustainability needs to be observed [10]. - Inventory: Steel mills are currently restocking as needed, and the inventory - available days decreased by 1 day to 19 days compared with last week. The restocking before the New Year's Day holiday was not obvious, and the restocking demand in mid - to - late January before the Spring Festival may boost iron ore prices. Port inventories have continued to accumulate, reaching nearly 1.63 billion tons, the highest since April 2018, and are expected to continue to accumulate slightly in the future [11]. 3.2 Industry News - A group of more than ten former US financial officials issued a joint statement on the 12th criticizing the Trump administration's criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, stating that the Fed's independence is crucial to the US economy [12]. - On January 12, the US State Department issued a top - level warning through its "Virtual Embassy in Iran", asking all US citizens in Iran to "leave immediately". Trump also stated that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff in any business with the US [12]. - China's Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Mao Ning stated that China hopes and supports Iran in maintaining national stability, opposes interference in other countries' internal affairs, and hopes that all parties will do more to promote peace and stability in the Middle East [12]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents multiple graphs related to the iron ore market, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade, low - grade ores and PB powder, the basis between spot and May contracts, the shipping volumes from Brazil and Australia, the arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port trading volumes, steel mill inventory - available days, import sintered powder ore inventories, port inventories and port clearance volumes, sample steel mill tax - free hot metal costs, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average pig iron output, apparent consumption of five major steel products, weekly output of five major steel products, and steel mill inventories of five major steel products. All data sources are from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][20][22].