建信期货集运指数日报-20260114

Report Information - Report Title: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: January 14, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Macro Financial Team [4] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The spot price of shipping increased well in early January, and the SCFIS index rebounded above 1900 points on Monday, rising 8.9% to 1956.39 points. However, shipping companies have recently lowered their quotes for late January, and the inflection point of the spot price peak may appear. The index fluctuated greatly this week, and the 04 contract rebounded significantly. Short - term bullish factors may be difficult to disprove, and sentiment may support the contract to run strongly [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: In early January, the price increase was well implemented. On Monday, the SCFIS index returned above 1900 points, rising 8.9% to 1956.39 points. Shipping companies have recently lowered their quotes for late January. After the peak shipping season, they may cut prices to attract customers, and the inflection point of the spot price peak may appear. The index fluctuated greatly this week, affected by factors such as tax - refund rush shipping and the Red Sea situation. The 04 contract rebounded significantly, and short - term sentiment may support the contract [8] 2. Industry News - From January 5th to January 9th, the overall market of China's export container transportation was stable, with different routes showing differentiated trends. In December 2025, China's official comprehensive PMI was 50.7, up 1 percentage point month - on - month. The manufacturing industry's production and demand recovered significantly, and the service industry's prosperity increased slightly. On January 9th, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was 1647.39 points, down 0.5% from the previous period. In the European route, the eurozone's unemployment rate in November 2025 dropped to 6.3%. The shipping demand was stable, and the spot booking price increased slightly. In the Mediterranean, North American routes, the shipping demand was stable, and the booking prices also rose. On January 12th, the US and the UK launched large - scale military strikes against the Houthi rebels in Yemen. The Houthi rebels warned of a strong response. In December 2025, many shipping companies announced price increases on multiple international routes. The Suez Canal Authority announced that Maersk would resume Red Sea - Suez Canal navigation in early December, but Maersk later denied it [9][10] 3. Data Overview 3.1 Container Shipping Spot Prices - From January 5th to January 12th, the SCFIS European route (basic ports) index rose from 1795.83 to 1956.39, an increase of 8.9%; the SCFIS US - West route (basic ports) index rose from 1250.12 to 1323.98, an increase of 5.9% [12] 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Market - Provided the trend charts of the main and secondary main contracts of container shipping European line futures [18] 3.3 Shipping - Related Data Trend Charts - Provided trend charts of European container ship capacity, global container ship orders on hand, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [18][21]