大越期货沪锌期货早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply of refined zinc in the global market from January to September 2025 was in short supply, with a shortage of 37.37 million tons. The short - term market trend of Shanghai zinc is expected to fluctuate and strengthen. The Shanghai zinc ZN2603 contract is expected to show an upward trend in a volatile manner [2][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, the global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, and the consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, the global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, and the consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, the global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, indicating a positive fundamental situation [2] 3.2 Basis Analysis - The spot price was 24,410, and the basis was +130, showing a positive situation [2] 3.3 Inventory Analysis - On January 13, the LME zinc inventory increased by 100 to 106,900 tons compared with the previous day, while on January 12, the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,728 tons to 33,613 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2] 3.4 Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, indicating a positive situation [2] 3.5 Main Position Analysis - The main position was net long, but the number of long positions decreased, still showing a positive situation [2] 3.6 Futures Market Quotes - On January 13, the trading volume of zinc futures contracts on the futures exchange increased to varying degrees, and the positions of most contracts also changed. Among them, the trading volume of the 2603 contract was 188,273 lots, and the position increased by 9,828 lots [3] 3.7 Spot Market Quotes - On January 13, the prices of 0 zinc in domestic main spot markets such as Guangdong, Tianjin, Shanghai, and Zhejiang all increased. The price of 0 zinc in Shanghai was in the range of 24,360 - 24,460 yuan/ton, with an increase of 190 yuan/ton [4] 3.8 Inventory Statistics - From December 31, 2025, to January 12, 2026, the total zinc ingot inventory in the main domestic markets decreased by 0.25 million tons compared with January 5 and decreased by 0.19 million tons compared with January 8 [5] 3.9 Warehouse Receipt Report - On January 13, the total zinc warehouse receipts on the futures exchange decreased by 1,728 to 33,613 tons. Among them, the warehouse receipts in Guangdong decreased by 921 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 807 tons [7] 3.10 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On January 13, the LME zinc inventory was 106,900 tons, an increase of 100 tons compared with the previous day [8] 3.11 Zinc Concentrate Price - On January 13, the prices of zinc concentrates in main domestic cities all increased by 150 yuan/ton [10] 3.12 Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On January 13, the prices of 0 zinc ingots from domestic smelters all increased by 190 yuan/ton [13] 3.13 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On January 13, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was mainly in the range of 1,100 - 1,600 yuan/metal ton, and the imported processing fee was 50 US dollars/ton [18] 3.14 Member Trading and Position Ranking - On January 13, the total trading volume of zinc futures by members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 281,993 lots, an increase of 132,954 lots. The total long position was 83,677 lots, an increase of 6,515 lots, and the total short position was 79,995 lots, an increase of 8,376 lots [19] 3.15 Short - term View - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile trend, with increased trading volume and more short - position increases. In the short term, the market may fluctuate repeatedly. Technically, the price was above the long - term moving average with strong support. The short - term KDJ indicator declined but was still in the strong area, and the trend indicator showed that the long - position strength increased and the short - position strength decreased, with the long - position strength having an expanding advantage. It is recommended that the Shanghai zinc ZN2603 contract is expected to fluctuate and strengthen [20]