大越期货贵金属早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices have continued to reach new highs. Although the bet on a January interest rate cut has almost disappeared, due to geopolitical tensions and Fed turmoil, gold prices remain strong. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to -4 yuan/gram [4]. - Core CPI inflation has slowed down, Trump has cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices have continued to rise. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to 2,600 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has heated up again. Due to geopolitical concerns and high - sentiment, silver prices also remain strong [5]. - After Trump's inauguration, the world has entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation. Gold prices are difficult to fall. Recently, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts and optimistic expectations for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have jointly affected the market. Coupled with liquidity concerns, there is still upward momentum for gold prices, but it is limited [9]. - After Trump's inauguration, silver prices still mainly follow gold prices. Concerns about tariffs have a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to larger increases [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The US core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and gold prices continued to reach new highs. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX gold futures fell 0.44% to $4,594.40 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Core CPI inflation slowed down, Trump cancelled the meeting with Iran, and silver prices continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed down across the board, and the three major European stock indexes closed mixed. US bond yields were mixed, with the 10 - year US bond yield rising 0.40 basis points to 4.179%. The US dollar index rose 0.28% to 99.18, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9736. COMEX silver futures rose 2.08% to $86.86 per ounce [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased, which is bullish [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Time TBD: China's December imports and exports and trade balance, and possibly the incremental social financing scale, new RMB loans from January to December, and money supply such as December M2; the US Supreme Court may make a ruling on the Trump tariff case [14]. - 16:20: Speech by European Central Bank Deputy President de Guindos [14]. - 17:15: Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Alan Taylor [14]. - 21:30: US November PPI [14]. - 22:50: Speech by Philadelphia Fed President Paulson on the economic outlook [14]. - 23:00: US December existing - home sales annualized total, and speech by Fed Governor Milan on supervision and monetary policy [14]. - 23:30: Speech by Bank of England Deputy President Dave Ramsden [14]. - Next day 01:00: Speech by Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari and participation in a discussion by Atlanta Fed President Bostic [14]. - Next day 03:00: Release of the Fed's "Beige Book" on economic conditions, and opening remarks by New York Fed President Williams [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis of gold is - 2.56, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts are 98,283 kilograms, a decrease of 630 kilograms [4]. - Silver: The basis of silver is + 26, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 630,066 kilograms, an increase of 19,577 kilograms [5]. 3.5. Positioning Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 180,315, an increase of 1.73% from the previous day; the short position volume is 48,004, a decrease of 2.30% from the previous day; the net position is 132,311, an increase of 3.28% from the previous day [4][30]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the long position of the main force has increased. As of January 13, 2026, the long position volume is 359,134, an increase of 0.01% from the previous day; the short position volume is 293,066, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous day; the net position is 66,068, an increase of 3.90% from the previous day [5][32].