铁矿石早报（2026-1-14）-20260114

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand of iron ore is loose, with steel mills' hot metal production starting to decrease, terminal demand being weak, and port inventories piling up. However, due to strong macro - sentiment, an oscillatory view is taken. The factors influencing the market are mixed, with some being bullish and others bearish [2]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Fundamental Analysis - The production of hot metal by steel mills is decreasing, the overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are accumulating, and terminal demand is weak, which is bearish [2]. Basis Analysis - The spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 875, with a basis of 52; the spot price of Brazilian blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 886, with a basis of 64. The spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. Inventory Analysis - Port inventories are 17,044.44 tons, increasing both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, which is bearish [2]. Market Trend Analysis - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. Position Analysis - The net long position of the main iron ore contract is held, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Bearish Factors - The later shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].