大越期货白糖早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season according to multiple institutions. The sugar price is under pressure. The main contract 05 of sugar futures is likely to be under pressure around 5300. Currently in the peak of new sugar listing and off - season of consumption with expected significant increase in imported sugar, the rebound strength is limited, and it will fluctuate in the range of 5200 - 5300 in the short term [5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - Fundamentals: ISO predicts a 163 - million - ton global sugar surplus in the 2025/26 season; DATAGRO lowers the surplus forecast from 280 million tons to 100 million tons; Czarnikow raises the surplus forecast to 740 million tons, 120 million tons higher than the August estimate; StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2025/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - Basis: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5380, and the basis for the 05 contract is 127, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, showing a neutral situation [6] - Inventory: As of the end of October in the 2025/26 sugar - making season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons, which is bearish [6] - Market Chart: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish signal [6] - Main Position: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, being bearish [6] - Likely Influencing Factors: Bullish factors include a possible decline in Brazilian sugar production in the 2026/27 season, an increase in syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors are the increase in global sugar production, a surplus in the new season, the opening of the import profit window due to the decline of the international sugar price to around 14.5 cents per pound, and increased import impact [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - Supply - Demand Forecast by Institutions: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 sugar season. StoneX forecasts a 370 - million - ton surplus due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO forecasts a 163 - million - ton surplus as global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only increases by 0.6%; Datagro forecasts a 153 - million - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [31] - Domestic Sugar - Related Data in China: From 2023/24 to 2025/26 (12 - month and 1 - month forecasts), the sugarcane and beet planting areas, yields, production, imports, consumption, and price ranges are provided. For example, in 2025/26, the expected sugar production is 11.7 million tons, imports are 5 million tons, consumption is 15.7 million tons, and the international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, while the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [33] - Import Cost: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imported sugar was about 5086 yuan per ton, with considerable import profits due to the continuous decline of the international sugar price [37] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content