大越期货尿素早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall fundamentals of urea are neutral, with the current daily production and operating rate at a high level compared to the same period last year. As maintenance work concludes, the operating rate is expected to rise further. The comprehensive inventory continues to decline, showing an obvious de - stocking pattern. The order demand has improved significantly compared to the previous period, and the agricultural reserve demand has increased. Industrial demand is mainly based on actual needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are at a moderate level. There is a large price gap between domestic and international markets for exports, and the recent low - price replenishment demand is relatively concentrated. However, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+10). The UR2605 contract basis is - 34, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.0%, indicating a bearish signal. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (- 34,000 tons), which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, indicating a bearish signal. The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and the operating rate is expected to continue to rise. The order demand has improved, the reserve demand has increased, and the inventory is being depleted. It is expected that urea will fluctuate today [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: Current daily production and operating rate are at a high level year - on - year. As maintenance returns, the operating rate is expected to rise. Comprehensive inventory continues to decline with an obvious de - stocking pattern. Order demand has improved, agricultural reserve demand has increased, industrial demand is based on actual needs, and the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are moderate. There is a large export price gap, and low - price replenishment demand is concentrated. The domestic market is still oversupplied. The spot price of the delivery product is 1740 (+10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - Basis: The UR2605 contract basis is - 34, with a premium/discount ratio of - 2.0%, which is bearish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons (- 34,000 tons), which is neutral [4]. - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4]. - Main Position: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is being reduced, which is bearish [4]. - Expectation: The main urea contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the operating rate continuing to rise, improved order demand, increased reserve demand, and inventory depletion. It is expected that urea will fluctuate today [4]. - Likely Factors: Inventory de - stocking and improved orders [5]. - Negative Factors: Domestic oversupply [5]. - Main Logic: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market Data | Category | Details | |--|--| | Spot Market | The price of the spot delivery product is 1740, up 10; the price of Shandong spot is 1740, up 10; the price of Henan spot is 1740, unchanged; the FOB China price is 2807 [6]. | | Futures Market | The 05 contract price is 1774, down 9; the basis is - 34, up 19; UR01 price is 1692, unchanged; UR05 price is 1774, down 9; UR09 price is 1749, down 14 [6]. | | Inventory | The number of warehouse receipts is 13,355, up 155; UR comprehensive inventory is 1.157 million tons; UR manufacturer inventory is 1.022 million tons; UR port inventory is 135,000 tons [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, urea production capacity has been increasing, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. Production has also generally increased, and the import dependence ratio has shown a certain degree of fluctuation. The apparent consumption and actual consumption have also increased year by year, with consumption growth rates ranging from 0.3% to 17.9%. The expected production capacity in 2025E is 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [9].