大越期货天胶早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the natural rubber industry [4][9] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are starting to decrease, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The market has support below, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of natural rubber show that supply is increasing, spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rate is high. The overall assessment is neutral. The basis is -175 (spot price is 15800), indicating a bearish signal. The inventory situation is mixed, with Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory increasing week - on - week but decreasing year - on - year, and Qingdao area inventory increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year. The price is above the 20 - day line and the 20 - day line is upward, showing a bullish sign. The main position has turned from net short to net long, also bullish. The market is expected to have support below, suggesting buying on dips [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Supply and Demand - Supply: Supply is increasing [4][6] - Demand: Downstream consumption is high, with seasonal rebounds in automobile production and sales, and an increase in tire industry exports, but tire production has decreased year - on - year [6][23][26][29][32] 3.2.2 Inventory - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has increased week - on - week, and Qingdao area inventory has recently rebounded, increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year [4][14][17] 3.2.3 Price - On January 13, 2024, the spot price of whole latex (non - deliverable) increased, and the basis strengthened on the same day [8][35] 3.2.4 Import - Import volume has rebounded [20] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Likely to Rise: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - Likely to Fall: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]