大越期货纯碱早报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash remain weak, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate with a downward trend in the short term. The supply is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, and inventory is at a high level compared to the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [2][5]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract decreased from 1239 yuan/ton to 1212 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.18%. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe dropped from 1185 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11%. The main basis changed from - 54 yuan/ton to - 52 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.70% [6]. 2. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1160 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash for North China ammonia - alkali method is - 57.85 yuan/ton, and for East China co - production method is - 40 yuan/ton, at a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash is 81.65%, and the weekly output is 75.36 tons, with heavy soda ash at 40.45 tons, at a historical high [18][21]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity. The total planned new capacity in 2023 was 640 tons, 180 tons in 2024, and 750 tons in 2025 (with 100 tons actually put into production) [22]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.54% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.01 tons, and the operating rate is 71.96% [28]. - The demand for soda ash from photovoltaic glass has weakened [4]. 4. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national soda ash inventory in factories is 157.27 tons, an increase of 11.67% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [34]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [35]. 6. Influencing Factors - Likely to be positive: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - Likely to be negative: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and the industry output is at a historical high. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, reducing the demand for soda ash [4].