大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Report's Core View - For PTA, the futures market oscillated and closed lower, with the spot market's negotiation atmosphere weakening and the spot basis also weakening. In the short - term, the PTA spot price is expected to oscillate following the cost side, and the spot basis will operate weakly. Attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations and downstream device changes [5]. - For MEG, the arrival of foreign - owned vessels is concentrated this month, and the inventory tank capacity is tight. Affected by the strong crude oil and geopolitical concerns, the price center has moderately increased. However, the medium - term fundamentals are weak, and there is heavy pressure on the price upside. Attention should be paid to crude oil price trends and geopolitical changes [7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - There is no specific content provided for the previous day's review in the report. 3.2. Daily Hints - PTA: Yesterday, the PTA futures market oscillated and closed lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere weakened, and the spot basis weakened. The mainstream spot basis today is at 05 - 69. The net short position decreased. In the short - term, the PTA spot price is expected to oscillate following the cost side, and the spot basis will operate weakly [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the MEG price center weakened. The night - session opened higher and then declined. The spot basis moderately strengthened. The net short position increased. This month, the arrival of foreign - owned vessels is concentrated, and the inventory tank capacity is tight. The price center has moderately increased, but the medium - term fundamentals are weak [7][8]. 3.3. Today's Focus - There is no specific content provided for today's focus in the report. 3.4. Fundamental Data - PTA: The spot price is 5060, and the 05 - contract basis is - 80, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.6 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [5][6]. - MEG: The spot price is 3682, and the 05 - contract basis is - 133, with the futures price higher than the spot price. The inventory in East China is 66.9 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average [8]. 3.5. PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity, output, supply, and demand all showed certain fluctuations. For example, in January 2024, the production capacity was 8062, the output was 591, and the total supply was 591. The polyester production capacity was 7984, and the total PTA demand was 572 [13]. 3.6. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production, import, supply, and demand of ethylene glycol also showed fluctuations. For example, in January 2024, the production was 51, the total supply was 209, the polyester production capacity was 7984, and the total ethylene glycol demand was 220 [14]. 3.7. Price - On January 13, 2026, compared with January 12, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 to 584.5 dollars/ton, the spot price of p - xylene decreased by 17 to 824 dollars/ton, the CCFEI price index of PTA decreased by 30 to 5060 yuan/ton, and the CCFEI price index of MEG decreased by 60 to 3662 yuan/ton [15]. 3.8. Inventory Analysis - The PTA factory inventory is 3.6 days, a decrease of 0.01 days compared to the previous period. The ethylene glycol inventory in East China is 66.9 tons, an increase of 0.55 tons compared to the previous period [5][8]. 3.9. Operating Rate - The operating rate of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol, polyester, and chemical fiber textile enterprises in the polyester industry chain all showed certain trends from 2022 to 2026, with fluctuations influenced by various factors [54][56][58]. 3.10. Profit - On January 13, 2026, compared with January 12, the PTA processing fee increased by 100.771 to 540.25 yuan/ton, the naphtha MEG internal - market profit decreased by 615.478 to - 1755.34 yuan/ton, and the profit of other products also changed to varying degrees [15].