广发期货日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper: The medium - to long - term fundamentals of copper are good, with capital expenditure constraints on the supply side supporting a gradual upward shift of the bottom center. Short - term price strength is due to structural imbalances in global inventories and concerns about metal supply from the Venezuela event. However, real terminal demand is weak at high prices. In the short term, prices may remain strong if the CL premium does not reverse, and attention should be paid to changes in the CL premium and LME inventories [2]. - Zinc: Geopolitical tensions drive the zinc price up. The shortage of zinc ore supports the price, but the import window opening may relieve short - term supply pressure. The smelting profit is under pressure, and demand is suppressed at high prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate, with support at around 23,800 yuan/ton [5]. - Aluminum: The alumina market is in a wide - range shock, with the core contradiction between policy expectations and weak fundamentals. The aluminum price is driven by strong macro and policy expectations, but the supply is growing rigidly while demand is weak, and inventories are accumulating. Short - term prices are expected to remain in a high - level wide - range shock, with the main contract operating between 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Tin: The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar is expected to accelerate, and the situation in Congo (Kinshasa) may affect production. Demand in South China shows some resilience, while that in East China is more suppressed. Short - term prices are volatile, and it is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and continue to hold previously bought call options [8]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon market is expected to be in a situation of weak supply and demand in January. Supply may decrease, and demand is likely to decline slightly. Prices are expected to remain in a low - level shock, with the main price range between 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton [11]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon spot is stable, and the futures price continues to fall. In January, the downstream开工率 is expected to decline, and inventories will accumulate. The price decline will relieve the cost pressure of downstream sectors. The cancellation of export tax rebates may lead to short - term export rush and long - term industry clearance. The price may be supported at 48,000 - 50,000 yuan/ton [13]. - Aluminum Alloy: The casting aluminum alloy market is in a high - level wide - range shock. The cost is the main driving factor, but the fundamentals show a pattern of weak supply and demand. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate in a high - level range, with the main contract between 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton [14]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate futures rose significantly. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains some resilience. The market sentiment is strong, but short - term liquidity risks and regulatory possibilities should be noted [16]. - Nickel: The nickel market is in a wide - range shock. The Indonesian government's attitude towards nickel ore quotas is uncertain, and geopolitical tensions affect the supply. The spot market is tight, and the inventory pressure increases. Short - term prices are expected to be in a strong - side shock, with the main contract between 138,000 - 148,000 yuan/ton [18]. - Stainless Steel: The stainless - steel market is in a narrow - range shock, mainly driven by the raw material nickel. The supply pressure eases slightly, but demand is weak in the off - season. The cost support is strong, but the demand boost is insufficient. Short - term prices are expected to adjust in a shock, with the main contract between 13,400 - 14,200 yuan/ton [20]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - Price and Basis: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.70% to 102,510 yuan/ton, and the SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.98% to 102,155 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 increased by 22.37 to 64.31 dollars/ton, and the import loss increased by 420.49 to 1,742 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the electrolytic copper production increased by 6.80% to 117.81 million tons, and the import volume in November decreased by 3.90% to 27.11 million tons. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 0.82% to 64.04 million tons, and the electrolytic copper rod production start - up rate decreased to 47.82% [2]. Zinc - Price and Spread: SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.79% to 24,330 yuan/ton, and the import loss increased by 105.34 to 2,040 yuan/ton. The 2601 - 2602 spread decreased by 40 to - 35 yuan/ton [5]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the refined zinc production decreased by 7.24% to 55.21 million tons, and the import volume in November decreased by 3.22% to 1.82 million tons. The galvanizing start - up rate increased to 54.39%, and the zinc alloy casting start - up rate decreased to 49.90% [5]. Aluminum - Price and Spread: SMM A00 aluminum price decreased by 0.16% to 24,300 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum import loss increased by 2,064 to 2,839 yuan/ton. The AL 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 70 to - 75 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the alumina production increased by 1.08% to 743.94 million tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.97% to 363.66 million tons. The aluminum profile start - up rate decreased to 50.70%, and the aluminum cable start - up rate increased to 59.60% [7]. Tin - Price and Basis: SMM 1 tin price increased by 3.16% to 380,200 yuan/ton, and the SMM 1 tin premium increased by 16.67% to 700 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 190.03% to - 87.01 dollars/ton [8]. - Fundamental Data: In November, the tin ore import volume increased by 29.81% to 15,099 tons, and the SMM refined tin production in December decreased by 0.06% to 15,950 tons. The SHEF inventory decreased by 12.61% to 6,935 tons [8]. Industrial Silicon - Price and Spread: The price of East - China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon remained unchanged at 9,250 yuan/ton, and the main contract price decreased by 1.37% to 8,635 yuan/ton. The 当月 - 连一 spread increased by 100.86% to 75 yuan/ton [11]. - Fundamental Data: The national industrial silicon production decreased by 1.15% to 39.71 million tons, and the Xinjiang industrial silicon production increased by 6.46% to 25.29 million tons. The social inventory decreased by 0.90% to 55.20 million tons [11]. Polysilicon - Price and Spread: The average price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 0.45% to 54,750 yuan/kg, and the main contract price decreased by 1.98% to 49,005 yuan/ton. The 当月 - 连一 spread increased by 326.09% to 1,300 yuan/ton [13]. - Fundamental Data: The polysilicon production decreased by 0.83% to 2.38 million tons, and the silicon wafer production increased by 3.34% to 10.52 million tons. The polysilicon inventory decreased by 1.31% to 30.20 million tons [13]. Aluminum Alloy - Price and Spread: The SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 23,950 yuan/ton, and the 2601 - 2602 spread increased by 215 to 0 yuan/ton [14]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the recycled aluminum alloy ingot production decreased by 6.16% to 64.00 million tons, and the primary aluminum alloy ingot production in November increased by 0.46% to 30.41 million tons. The recycled aluminum alloy start - up rate decreased to 56.19% [14]. Lithium Carbonate - Price and Spread: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price increased by 4.93% to 159,500 yuan/ton, and the 2602 - 2603 spread decreased by 280 to - 740 yuan/ton [16]. - Fundamental Data: In December, the lithium carbonate production increased by 4.04% to 99,200 tons, and the demand decreased by 2.50% to 130,118 tons. The total lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 12.23% to 56,664 tons [16]. Nickel - Price and Spread: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 1.12% to 145,200 yuan/ton, and the LME 0 - 3 decreased by 2.08% to - 200 dollars/ton. The 2602 - 2603 spread remained unchanged at - 190 yuan/ton [18]. - Fundamental Data: The Chinese refined nickel product decreased by 9.38% to 33,342 tons, and the refined nickel import volume increased by 30.08% to 12,671 tons. The SHFE inventory increased by 2.43% to 46,650 tons [18]. Stainless Steel - Price and Spread: The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price remained unchanged at 13,900 yuan/ton, and the 2602 - 2603 spread increased by 25 to - 70 yuan/ton [20]. - Fundamental Data: The Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 2.50% to 171.93 million tons, and the Indonesian 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 0.36% to 42.35 million tons. The 300 - series social inventory decreased by 3.22% to 45.74 million tons [20].