工业硅期货早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply decreased last week, demand increased, and the market is affected by factors such as cost support, inventory levels, and downstream production trends. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 8510 - 8760 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production is decreasing, demand is showing signs of recovery but may be weak in the future, and cost support is stabilizing. The 2605 contract is expected to oscillate between 47635 - 50375 [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's industrial silicon supply was 85,000 tons, a 2.29% decrease from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's industrial silicon demand was 80,000 tons, a 9.59% increase from the previous week, with demand rising [6]. - Inventory: The polysilicon inventory was 302,000 tons, at a high level; the silicone inventory was 53,200 tons, at a low level; the aluminum alloy ingot inventory was 68,200 tons, at a high level; the social inventory was 552,000 tons, a 0.89% decrease; the sample enterprise inventory was 203,300 tons, a 0.44% increase; the main port inventory was 137,000 tons, a 2.14% decrease [6]. - Cost: The production cost of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang was 9794.9 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous week, and the cost support increased during the dry season [6]. - Basis: On January 13th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 565 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with short positions increasing [6]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule is decreasing, inventory remains high, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support increases, and the industrial silicon 2605 contract oscillates between 8510 - 8760 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's polysilicon production was 23,800 tons, a 0.83% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule for January is expected to be 107,800 tons, a 6.66% decrease compared to the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 10.52GW, a 3.33% increase from the previous week; the inventory was 262,300 tons, a 13.10% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 45.2GW, a 2.96% increase compared to the previous month. In December, the battery cell production was 46.76GW, a 15.91% decrease; last week, the external sales factory inventory of battery cells was 9.04GW, a 1.34% increase. Currently, battery cell production is at a loss. The production schedule for January is 39.36GW, a 15.82% decrease. In December, the component production was 38.7GW, a 17.48% decrease; the expected component production for January is 32.47GW, a 16.09% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 31.3GW, a 5.43% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average cost of polysilicon N - type material in the industry is 38,600 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,650 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On January 13th, the price of N - type dense material was 54,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 5745 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [11]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory was 302,000 tons, a 1.30% decrease, at a high level compared to the same period in history [11]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20 [11]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [11]. - Expectation: The supply production schedule continues to decrease, demand from silicon wafer production continues to increase, battery cell production continues to decrease, component production continues to decrease. Overall demand shows signs of recovery but may be weak in the future. Cost support stabilizes, and the polysilicon 2605 contract oscillates between 47635 - 50375 [10]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures Closing Price: The prices of most contracts decreased, with the 02 contract down 1.38%, the 03 contract down 1.49%, etc. [17]. - Basis: The basis of most contracts increased, with the 08 contract up 119.27% [17]. - Warehouse Receipt: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 11,128, a 2.20% increase [17]. - Organosilicon: The DMC production decreased by 1.86%, the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 64.23%, and the profit was 2100 yuan/ton [17]. - Aluminum Alloy: The monthly production of primary aluminum alloy ingots increased by 0.46%, the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.85% [17]. - Spot Price: The prices of various types of industrial silicon in East China remained unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.90%, the sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.44%, and the main port inventory decreased by 2.14% [17]. - Production/Utilization Rate: The weekly sample enterprise production decreased by 5.28%, the production in Sichuan decreased by 100.00%, and the production in Xinjiang decreased by 5.09% [17]. - Cost/Profit: The cost of 553 in Yunnan increased by 12.18%, and the cost of oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang increased by 13.68% [17]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Silicon Wafer: The prices of various silicon wafers remained mostly unchanged, the weekly production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly inventory decreased by 22.06% [19]. - Battery Cell: The prices of various battery cells remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 15.91%, the weekly external sales factory inventory increased by 1.35%, and the export increased by 24.25% [19]. - Component: The prices of various components remained mostly unchanged, the monthly production decreased by 17.48%, the domestic inventory decreased by 51.73%, the European inventory decreased by 5.44%, and the export increased by 5.54% [19]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type polysilicon decreased by 0.45%, the average cost of the polysilicon industry remained unchanged, the monthly supply decreased by 14.48%, the monthly consumption decreased by 10.37%, and the monthly balance changed by - 39.38% [19]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon main contracts and the price spread between 421 and 553 [21][22]. - Polysilicon Disk Price Trends: The report shows the historical trends of polysilicon main contract prices, trading volumes, and basis [24][25]. - Industrial Silicon Inventory: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory in warehouses and ports, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipt volume [27][28][29]. - Industrial Silicon Production and Capacity Utilization Trends: The report shows the historical trends of industrial silicon weekly production, monthly production by specification, and sample enterprise opening rates [31][32][33]. - Industrial Silicon Cost - Sample Region Trends: The report shows the historical cost trends of 421/553 in Sichuan, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [38][39][40]. - Industrial Silicon Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The report provides weekly and monthly supply - demand balance sheets for industrial silicon, including production, consumption, import, and export [42][43][46]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Organosilicon: The report shows the price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products [48][49][50][51][53][54][55]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Aluminum Alloy: The report shows the price, supply, inventory, production, and demand trends of aluminum alloy [56][57][59][60][61]. - Industrial Silicon Downstream - Polysilicon: The report shows the cost, price, inventory, production, demand, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon and its downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, as well as the trends of photovoltaic accessories, component cost - profit, and photovoltaic grid - connected power generation [66][67][69][70][72][73][75][76][78][79][81][82][84][85][87][88][89][90].