大越期货菜粕早报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2260 - 2320. It is currently in a short - term weak oscillation, affected by the soybean meal trend, technical consolidation, and the outcome of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the market. Overall, it will maintain a short - term oscillation pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate between 2260 and 2320. The market is affected by soybean meal, technical factors, and Sino - Canadian trade relations. The spot demand is in the off - season, and low inventory supports the price, maintaining a short - term oscillation [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture is in the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply tightening and decreasing demand suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues reduce short - term exports to China. - China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is imposed. The final tariff policy depends on the development of Sino - Canadian trade relations. - Global rapeseed production increased this year, especially in Canada. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production offset by the increase in Russian production. Geopolitical conflicts still support commodity prices [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: Domestic rapeseed meal demand is in the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a possibility of reconciliation. - The main logic: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Price and Spread: From January 5th to 13th, the average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal increased from 608 to 701. The rapeseed meal futures price fluctuated, and the spot price followed. The spot price was at a relatively high premium. The price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract rebounded from a low level [13][15][20]. - Inventory: Rapeseed meal inventory was 0 tons, the same as last week and a 100% year - on - year decrease compared to 22,000 tons last year. Oil mill rapeseed inventory remained low, and the rapeseed crushing volume was zero [9][25][27]. - Aquatic Product Data: Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data - The main short positions increased, and funds flowed in, showing a bearish signal [9].