大越期货豆粕早报-20260114

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2700 - 2760. The market is influenced by the decline of US soybeans, the approaching harvest of Brazilian soybeans, and the interaction between demand improvement and US soybean trends. The short - term outlook is neutral, with a mix of positive and negative factors [9]. - The soybean A2605 is projected to fluctuate between 4280 - 4380. The market is affected by the oscillation of US soybeans, the auction of state - reserved imported soybeans, and the interaction of Sino - US trade agreements and Brazilian soybean imports. The short - term outlook is also neutral [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China will continue to decline in Q1. The soybean inventory of oil mills remains high in January. With normal weather in South American soybean - growing areas, soybean meal has returned to range - bound trading [13]. - Reduced profits in China's pig - farming industry have led to low expectations for pig restocking. However, the demand for soybean meal remains strong in January, supporting price expectations. The interaction between the influence of US soybeans and the recovery of soybean meal demand maintains the range - bound pattern [13]. - The high inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, the potential for weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas, and the impact of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement keep soybean meal in a short - term range - bound state, waiting for clear US soybean production and further Sino - US trade negotiation results [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary Sino - US trade agreement is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of South American soybean - growing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remains high in January; with normal weather, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [14]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean harvest weather and the follow - up of the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement [14]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports price expectations [15]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses price expectations [15]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the impact of US soybean weather and the Sino - US trade tariff game [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From January 5th to 13th, the average transaction price of soybean meal ranged from 3138 to 3188 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume varied from 8.1 to 116.13 tons. The average transaction price of rapeseed meal was between 2480 and 2570 yuan/ton, and the transaction volume was mostly 0, with a small amount on January 8th and 12th. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal gradually increased [16]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From January 6th to 13th, the prices of soybean futures (both No. 1 and No. 2), soybean meal futures (both near - term and far - term), and soybean and soybean meal spot prices all fluctuated [18]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From December 31st to January 13th, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1, No. 2, and soybean meal changed. The warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased overall, while the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 remained at 400, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal had some small - scale fluctuations [20]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show changes in harvest area, output, consumption, and inventory. Generally, the total supply and demand of soybeans have been increasing, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [32][33]. - Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 shows that the progress in different years and regions varies, affected by factors such as weather and planting plans [34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43]. - USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from June 2025 to January 2026 show changes in US soybean planting area, yield per unit, output, end - of - period inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume, as well as the output of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [44]. - Imported Soybean Arrival Volume: The arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 shows monthly fluctuations, with an overall upward trend in some years. In December 2025, the arrival volume increased slightly compared to the previous period and was generally higher year - on - year [47]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.