大越期货PVC期货早报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of PVC are generally bearish. Supply pressure has increased this week, and production is expected to rise next week. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain weak. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4834 - 4942. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the sluggish recovery of domestic demand [8]. - Bullish factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Bearish factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In December 2025, PVC production was 2.137356 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 79.67%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 343,410 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.56%, while ethylene - based enterprise production was 144,360 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [8]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate was 44.02%, a month - on - month increase of 0.08 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 30.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.439 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 35.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 66.43%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.53%, a month - on - month increase of 0.78 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. Current demand may remain weak [8]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 633.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 11.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 192.09 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 31.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2109.91 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.80%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. - Basis: On January 13, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4750 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 138 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. Bearish [8]. - Inventory: Factory inventory was 328,194 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.13%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 244,844 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.06%. Ethylene - based factory inventory was 83,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Social inventory was 546,346 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.02%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month increase of 5.46%. Bearish [8]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. Bullish [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. Bearish [8]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on yesterday's PVC market, including prices, spreads, downstream operating rates, profits, costs, capacity utilization rates, and inventory levels of different regions and production methods [14][15]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report presents the historical basis trend of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the spot price and the futures price over time [17][18]. - Price and Volume: It shows the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures, as well as the changes in the positions of the top 5 and 20 seats [20][21]. - Spread Analysis: The report analyzes the price spreads of the main contracts of PVC futures, including the 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads in 2024 and 2025 [23][24]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide Method - Related: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, and inventory of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit analysis of the chlor - alkali industry and the double - ton price difference [26][31][34][37][39]. - Supply Trends: It shows the capacity utilization rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based PVC production, production, maintenance volume, and daily production [40][41][43]. - Demand Trends: It includes the sales volume of PVC traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of different downstream products such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also analyzes the real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, and completion area, as well as macro - economic indicators such as social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment year - on - year [45][46][54]. - Inventory: It shows the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [57][58]. - Ethylene Method: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads such as the FOB spread of ethylene - based PVC and the import spread of vinyl chloride [59][60]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from November 2024 to December 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and the supply - demand difference [62][63].