广发期货日评-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Overall Market: The A - share market saw a pull - back after a continuous volume - increasing upward trend, with the trading volume remaining high, and the correction amplitude may be limited. The bond market is in a volatile situation, and the rebound amplitude of treasury bond futures may be restricted. The precious metals market shows a differentiated trend, and the steel market maintains a volatile trend. Other commodity markets also present various trends based on their respective supply - demand and market conditions [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Equity Index Futures - Performance: Index futures pulled back after reaching highs, and the technology sector had a collective correction. - Operation Suggestion: Do a good job in portfolio risk control, avoid heavy - position chasing, and consider allocating IH with relatively weak previous gains. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes and pay attention to preventing risks from large fluctuations [3]. Treasury Bond Futures - Performance: After previous adjustments, the duration of trading positions in the bond market has been compressed to a low level, and the selling pressure on long - term bonds has eased. The ultra - long - end showed an oversold rebound in the past two trading days. The short - term bond market is still in a volatile situation due to unclear economic "good start" and uncertain supply pressure. - Operation Suggestion: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy for single - side trading. In the medium - term, prefer to steepen the yield curve [3]. Precious Metals - Performance: U.S. inflation data was generally moderate, the U.S. dollar rebounded, and precious metals showed a differentiated trend with silver leading the rise. - Operation Suggestion: Keep a light - position long - bias operation or sell out - of - the - money put options for gold above $4300. Hold long positions of silver above $75 and operate cautiously on a single - side basis. For platinum and palladium, consider buying lightly at the 20 - day moving average [3]. Shipping and Steel - Performance: The shipping market declined, and the steel market maintained a volatile trend. Iron ore supply is in the off - season, and port inventories are continuously accumulating. - Operation Suggestion: For steel, the reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils is 3150 - 3350. For iron ore, it is in a wide - range fluctuation with a reference range of 770 - 830 [3]. Coal and Coking - Performance: Coal prices in Shanxi showed more increases than decreases, and the transaction volume improved. After the fourth round of coke price cuts after New Year's Day, the price stabilized. - Operation Suggestion: Go long on coking coal and coke on dips, and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Performance: Copper prices are at a high level, and downstream operating rates are weakening. Aluminum has high - inflation of long - position sentiment with a risk of emotional correction. Other non - ferrous metals also show different price trends. - Operation Suggestion: Hold copper long positions lightly and cautiously. For aluminum, wait for a correction to build long positions. For other non - ferrous metals, operate according to their respective price ranges and trends [3]. New Energy and Chemicals - Performance: Industrial silicon futures fluctuate, and polycrystalline silicon futures decline further. Chemical products have different supply - demand and price trends. - Operation Suggestion: For industrial silicon, the reference range is 8000 - 9000. For other chemicals, operate according to their respective price ranges, supply - demand situations, and trends [3]. Agricultural Products - Performance: USDA reports have different impacts on agricultural products. For example, it is bearish for beans and neutral - bullish for cotton. - Operation Suggestion: Different agricultural products have different operation suggestions, such as waiting and seeing, long - position protection, or short - position operations according to their price trends and supply - demand conditions [3].