宏观宽松预期持续提振资金情绪驱动贵金属走强

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The continuous expectation of macro - easing boosts capital sentiment, driving the strength of precious metals. In the long - term, precious metals have allocation value due to dual benefits of macro - financial and supply - demand attributes, leading to a rising price center. In the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility, giving their prices stronger elasticity. It is recommended to buy on dips with a light position, referring to technical indicators like the 20 - day moving average [1][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Performance - This week, due to uncertainties in the US domestic and foreign situations, capital sentiment is high, and precious metal prices break through again after a short - term adjustment last week. Silver leads the increase, with the international silver price breaking through the historical high of $90 per ounce, and the main silver futures contract AG2604 rising by over 8% to nearly 22,900 yuan per kilogram. The main platinum futures contract PT2606 rises by over 6% and then narrows [1]. Driving Factor 1: Weak US Employment Market and Moderate Inflation Boost Fed's Easing Expectation - In December, the US non - farm employment increased by 50,000 people, lower than the expected 65,000 and the previous value of 64,000. From October to November, the total was revised down by 76,000. In 2025, the annual employment increase was only 580,000, the weakest since the pandemic. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, but it was mainly due to the decline in the labor force participation rate in the household sample. The number of registered unemployed people reached 7.5 million, remaining at a high level since mid - 2021 [3]. - In December, US CPI inflation was moderate, with a year - on - year increase of 2.7% and a month - on - month increase of 0.3%, both the same as the previous values. Core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, slightly lower than the market expectation of 2.7% [3][4]. - The weak labor market and inflation situation increase the urgency of further policy easing. The US president pressures the Fed, and the Republican Party is looking for a new Fed chairman. Since last September, the Fed has cut interest rates three times, with a cumulative cut of 75 basis points, and launched RMP to buy short - term treasury bonds. Although the market expects the Fed to remain on hold in January, there is a possibility of a more dovish attitude. Under the expectation of policy and loose liquidity, institutional funds have high sentiment for early - year allocation, and precious metals will gain a higher premium [4]. Driving Factor 2: Geopolitical Conflicts and Resource Competition Intensify Supply Tension, and COMEX Physical Delivery Demand is Strong - US intervention in the geopolitical situations in the Middle East, South America, and Greenland is to control and plunder strategic resources. The growth of AI and data centers increases the demand for electricity, and China's tightened silver export policy since January 1, 2026, drive the US to increase resource control in other regions [7]. - Since January, the total number of delivery notices issued for non - main COMEX silver futures contracts has reached 7,212 lots, equivalent to 36 million ounces. The delivery volume in less than half a month is three times that of January last year. Some main - contract positions are "reverse - rolled" to the near - term, indicating strong short - term physical demand. Although the London spot market is relatively loose, the global silver ETF holdings are rising, and the inventory structural tension may not be truly alleviated [8]. Outlook - Precious metals have long - term allocation value, but in the short - term, silver and platinum - palladium metals face tariff risks and high volatility. Investors should set stop - loss and take - profit points according to news and use a strategy of buying on dips with a light position, referring to the 20 - day moving average [13].