沪铜产业日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract fluctuates at a high level, with increasing open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. Fundamentally, on the raw material side, the spot TC processing index of copper concentrate runs at a low level, and the domestic copper ore supply remains tight, providing strong cost support for copper prices. On the supply side, due to the high prices of copper and smelting by - products such as sulfuric acid, smelters are still actively producing, and the production schedule in January is expected to maintain a slight growth trend. On the demand side, the downstream purchasing sentiment is still cautious due to high copper prices, and the growth of new orders in the downstream is limited due to the off - season, so the trading volume in the spot market is still light, and industrial inventories are accumulating. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight supply increase and cautious demand, with social inventories accumulating. In terms of options, the call - put ratio of at - the - money option positions is 1.54, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0044, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, for the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are converging. The view is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai copper futures main contract is 104,120 yuan/ton, up 1,830 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 13,176 dollars/ton, up 12 dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 250 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The open interest of the Shanghai copper main contract is 241,222 lots, up 68,262 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 75,925 lots, down 8,758 lots. The LME copper inventory is 141,550 tons, up 4,325 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 180,543 tons, up 35,201 tons; the LME copper cancelled warrants are 51,825 tons, up 29,750 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 149,339 tons, down 2,856 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 103,915 yuan/ton, up 1,405 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 104,115 yuan/ton, up 1,800 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper is 43 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 37 dollars/ton, down 1.5 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 205 yuan/ton, down 425 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is 90.23 dollars/ton, up 25.92 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 252.62 million tons, up 7.47 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 45.41 dollars/thousand tons, down 0.43 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 94,400 yuan/metal ton, up 1,820 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 95,100 yuan/metal ton, up 1,820 yuan. The processing fee for blister copper in the south is 2,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the processing fee for blister copper in the north is 1,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The output of refined copper is 123.60 million tons, up 3.20 million tons; the import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 437,000 tons, up 7,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 68,800 yuan/ton, down 690 yuan; the price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 84,100 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.60 million tons, up 22.20 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 560.39 billion yuan, up 77.956 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 7,859.09 billion yuan, up 502.82 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,392 million pieces, up 215 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 26.23%, down 0.93%; the 40 - day historical volatility of Shanghai copper is 22.38%, up 0.13%. The implied volatility of at - the - money options in the current month is 32.34%, down 0.0151%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options is 1.54, down 0.0044 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In December 2025, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous value. Affected by the long - term "shutdown" of the US federal government, the reference value of this data for the market to predict the future policy path of the Federal Reserve may be weakened. The CME FedWatch shows that the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep the policy rate unchanged in January 2026 with a probability as high as 95%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises, with 12 enterprise leaders from key industries participating. The meeting emphasized actively participating in industry rule - making and self - regulatory mechanism construction and consciously resisting "involution". The President of the St. Louis Fed said that there is currently little reason to further ease monetary policy in the short term because the Fed's policy rate is at a "near - neutral" level. Shanghai introduced 28 measures to promote the quality improvement and efficiency increase of the service industry and the expansion of consumption. The China Automobile Dealers Association data shows that in 2025, the trading volume of the Chinese used - car market exceeded 20 million vehicles for the first time, reaching 20.108 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%, and the trading volume of new - energy used cars reached 1.6 million vehicles, accounting for 7.9% [2].