合成橡胶产业日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The domestic output of cis - butadiene rubber in this cycle continues at a high level. The cis - butadiene market is boosted by the substantial increase in the raw material market, and the sales of production enterprises have improved. However, due to the existence of some unsold but already - sold inventory waiting to be picked up, the overall inventory level has limited changes. The continuous strength and rapid price increase of the raw material end have led to a significant increase in the supply price of cis - butadiene rubber. Affected by the downstream's resistance to high prices, downstream may maintain rigid demand procurement. It is expected that the inventory of production enterprises and trading enterprises may increase in the short term. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week, and with the gradual resumption of maintenance devices, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. The short - term fluctuation range of the br2603 contract is expected to be between 12,100 - 12,650 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 12,250 yuan/ton, with a change of 250 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the position of the main contract is 100,576, with an increase of 5,258 compared to the previous period. The 2 - 3 spread of synthetic rubber is - 30 yuan/ton, and the number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in total warehouses is 6,530 tons, with no change compared to the previous period [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different enterprises in different regions remain unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 150 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of Brent crude oil is 65.47 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.6 US dollars/barrel; the price of WTI crude oil is 61.15 US dollars/barrel, with an increase of 1.65 US dollars/barrel. The price of naphtha CFR Japan is 725 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 3.25 US dollars/ton; the price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 561.25 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,140 US dollars/ton, with an increase of 35 US dollars/ton. The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market is 9,525 yuan/ton, with an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, with no change; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 71.31%, with an increase of 0.14 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 41,300 tons, with a decrease of 3,400 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 54.57%, with a decrease of 0.37 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber is 13.01 million tons, with a decrease of 0.75 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 79.15%, with an increase of 1.97 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 335 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 669 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 3.31 million tons, with a decrease of 0.14 million tons; the manufacturer's inventory is 26,350 tons, with an increase of 50 tons; the trader's inventory is 6,770 tons, with a decrease of 410 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 65.89%, with a decrease of 3.46 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires is 58.02%, with a decrease of 1.53 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, with an increase of 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, with an increase of 6.63 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong are 44.62 days, with a decrease of 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 47.36 days, with an increase of 0.31 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a decrease of 2.75 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 13.97 percentage points compared to the same period last year; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a decrease of 2.43 percentage points compared to the previous period and a decrease of 3.37 percentage points compared to the same period last year. In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 1.436 million tons, an increase of 0.135 million tons compared to the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 10.38% and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber in December was 72.13%, an increase of 4.65 percentage points compared to the previous month and a decrease of 2.68 percentage points compared to the same period last year. As of January 7, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.04 million tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08% [2].