铂钯金期货日报-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices have certain support. In the medium to long term, the differentiation in supply - demand patterns may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend. The London platinum is expected to face resistance at $2,500 per ounce and find support at $1,900 per ounce, while the London palladium may encounter resistance at $1,900 per ounce and support at $1,500 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum main contract was 630.65 yuan/gram, up 22.30 yuan; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 495.50 yuan/gram, up 7.80 yuan. The position of the platinum main contract was 10,387.00 lots, down 277.00 lots; the position of the palladium main contract was 3,179.00 lots, up 90.00 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of platinum (Pt9995) on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 0.00 yuan, down 599.38 yuan; the average spot price of palladium in the Yangtze River was 450.00 yuan, up 5.00 yuan. The basis of the platinum main contract was - 630.65 yuan/gram, down 621.68 yuan; the basis of the palladium main contract was - 45.50 yuan/gram, down 2.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The non - commercial long positions of platinum in CFTC were 9,966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the non - commercial long positions of palladium in CFTC were 3,003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium in 2025 was expected to be 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium in 2025 was expected to be 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index was 99.18, up 0.28; the VIX volatility index was 15.98. The 10 - year US Treasury real yield was 1.88%, down 0.02 percentage points [2] 3.5 Industry News - The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continued to ferment. Many former US financial officials criticized the Trump administration's investigation, and global central bank governors were drafting a statement to support Powell. The World Bank raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. The US GDP growth rate in 2026 was expected to reach 2.2%, the eurozone's economic growth rate would slow to 0.9%, and Japan's economic growth rate would slow to 0.8%. The US budget deficit in December 2025 was $145 billion, a record high for the month. The US CPI in December 2025 rose 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI rose 2.6%, both unchanged from the previous value. The US employment report was slightly stronger than expected, reducing the probability of a January interest rate cut, but there was still room for a 50 - 75 basis - point interest rate cut within the year. The Fed's balance - sheet expansion plan boosted the narrative of loose liquidity, and the precious metals market remained strong [2] 3.6 Key Points to Watch - The release of the US December PPI year - on - year data on January 14 at 21:30, the US core retail sales month - on - month data on January 14 at 21:30, the Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth rate on January 15 at 01:00, and the European Central Bank's release of the monetary policy meeting minutes on January 15 at 20:30 [2]