瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260114

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of slight increase in supply and cautious demand. The raw material lithium ore prices are rising with the increasing price of lithium carbonate, and there may be hedging space. The smelters may maintain an active production state, while downstream battery cathode material manufacturers have low acceptance of high - priced lithium and mainly purchase based on rigid demand, resulting in strong market wait - and - see sentiment [2]. - The put - call ratio of option positions is 172.54%, up 28.5949% month - on - month, indicating a bearish sentiment in the options market with a slight increase in implied volatility. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are above the 0 - axis with the emergence of green bars. The report suggests light - position oscillating trading and controlling risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 161,940 yuan/ton, down 5,040 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 125,517 lots, up 10,594 lots; the position of the main contract is 452,583 lots, down 7,698 lots; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 4,720 yuan/ton, up 9,080 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 27,158 lots, up 260 lots [2]. Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 163,000 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 159,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 1,060 yuan/ton, up 8,540 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 1,880 US dollars/ton, up 130 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 18,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) is 6,500 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 56,820 tons, up 2,840 tons; the monthly import volume is 22,055.19 tons, down 1,825.51 tons; the monthly export volume is 759.24 tons, up 513.33 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 49%, up 2%. The monthly output of power batteries is 176,300 MWh, up 5,700 MWh; the price of lithium manganate is 42,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 157,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of lithium cobalt oxide is 396,500 yuan/ton, up 3,500 yuan; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 189,000 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 172,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan [2]. Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 185,500 yuan/ton, up 4,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 50%, down 1%; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 47,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 60%, down 3%. The monthly production of new energy vehicles is 1,880,000 units, up 108,000 units; the monthly sales volume is 1,823,000 units, up 108,000 units; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 47.48%, up 0.74%; the monthly export volume is 300,000 units, up 44,000 units; the cumulative sales volume is 14,780,000 units, up 3,518,000 units; the cumulative export volume is 2,315,000 units, up 1,174,000 units. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 69.82%, up 2.96%; the 40 - day average volatility is 62.58%, down 1.54% [2]. Option Situation - The total call position is 67,007 lots, up 1,587 lots; the total put position is 115,613 lots, up 21,445 lots; the put - call ratio of total positions is 172.54%, up 28.5949%; the at - the - money implied volatility (IV) is 0.72%, up 0.0619% [2]. Industry News - In early January 2026 compared with late December 2025, 27 out of 50 important production materials monitored by the National Bureau of Statistics saw price increases, 20 decreased, and 3 remained flat, with lithium iron phosphate (ordinary power type) up 11.3% [2]. - In 2025, the transaction volume of China's used - car market exceeded 20 million for the first time, reaching 20.108 million, a year - on - year increase of 2.52%, and the transaction volume of new - energy used cars was 1.6 million, accounting for 7.9% [2]. - Rongbai Technology signed a 120 - billion - yuan procurement cooperation agreement for lithium iron phosphate cathode materials with CATL [2]. - A US - backed company, Dobra Lithium Holdings, won the mining rights for the Dobra lithium mine in Ukraine, and Ukraine hopes to attract Western capital and strengthen relations with the US [2]. - Sichuan Province issued an action plan to build a full - cycle and full - process green manufacturing system, aiming to strengthen the comprehensive utilization of new solid waste and build a recycling system for waste power batteries [2]. - The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced positive results in the Sino - EU electric vehicle anti - subsidy case, with the EU Commission taking steps towards a "soft landing" of the case [2].