Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with the accumulation rate narrowing but still at a high level. The inflow of rubber at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal decline, while the downstream rigid demand improves, increasing the overall outflow. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased. Some enterprises had maintenance plans around the New Year's Day holiday, and some enterprises continued to control production. As the maintenance devices gradually resume, the capacity utilization rate of tire enterprises may increase slightly this week. - The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,700 - 16,400 in the short - term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,700 - 13,250 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 16,160 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 13,015 yuan/ton, up 175 yuan. - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 20 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,145 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. - The position of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 199,737 lots, up 5,063 lots; the position of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 70,673 lots, up 511 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 55,451 lots, down 2,000 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 13,094 lots, up 1,997 lots. - The warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber in the exchange are 105,590 tons, unchanged; the warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber in the exchange are 57,758 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,050 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,910 US dollars/ton, down 10 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,905 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars. - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,050 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,000 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. - The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 310 yuan/ton, down 135 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 925 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan. - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,320 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 305 yuan/ton, down 246 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 60 Thai baht/kg, down 0.09 Thai baht; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 56.35 Thai baht/kg, unchanged. - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 57.5 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.21%, up 0.73 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 13.54%, down 0.09 percentage points. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.28%, up 1.52 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.27%, up 1.53 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the domestic heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. - As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13%. - As of January 8, the capacity utilization rate of the Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of the all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points [2].
瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260114
Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-14 08:59