瑞达期货集运指数（欧线）期货日报-20260114

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - On Wednesday, most futures prices of the Container Shipping Index (European Line) declined. The main contract EC2604 closed up 0.21%, while the far - month contracts fell between 1 - 2%. The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index was 1956.39, up 160.56 points from last week, a week - on - week increase of 8.9%. The cancellation of full - tax rebates for photovoltaic products is expected to boost long - term contract cargo volume but weaken spot support. China's manufacturing PMI in December showed a slight recovery, and the new export order index rose to 49, indicating a significant recovery in terminal transportation demand. Spot freight rates increased, with Maersk's fourth - week opening rate for large containers at 2700 US dollars, up 100 US dollars from the third week. Geopolitical tensions may ease, with expectations of an end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026 and a warmer outlook for Red Sea re - navigation. Eurozone inflation pressure has eased, weakening expectations of an ECB interest rate hike by the end of the year. Freight rate announcements of price increases have not been implemented, many shipping companies have lowered prices, weakening the support for futures prices. The current freight market is highly affected by seasonal demand. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to operation rhythm and risk control, and track geopolitical, capacity, and cargo volume data [1] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1230.500, up 2.6; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1424.1, down 17.00. EC2604 - EC2606 spread: +20.20 (up); EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 302.10, up 28.10. EC contract basis: - 30.80 (down), 725.89. EC main contract open interest: 40044, up 1274 [1] Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1956.39, up 160.56; SCFIS (US West Coast Line) (weekly): 1323.98, up 73.86. SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1656.32, up 8.93; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, down 0.16. CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1146.67, down 48.22; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1519.06, down 48.69. Baltic Dry Index (daily): 1608.00, up 51.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1331.00, up 9.00. Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, unchanged; average charter price (Capesize ship): 17773.00, down 750.00 [1] Industry News - Trump cancelled all talks with Iranian officials, the US State Department asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately, and the US military prepared various response options, but the White House preferred diplomacy. The criminal investigation of Fed Chairman Powell continued to ferment, with many former US financial officials criticizing Trump's move and global central bank governors drafting a statement in support of Powell. Trump said he would announce the next Fed Chairman in the coming weeks. The World Bank raised the 2026 global economic growth forecast to 2.6%, 0.2 percentage points higher than the previous forecast. It predicted that the US GDP growth rate would reach 2.2% in 2026, while the Eurozone and Japanese economies would slow down to 0.9% and 0.8% respectively [1] Key Data to Watch - UK November three - month GDP monthly rate at 15:00 on January 15; UK November manufacturing output monthly rate at 15:00 on January 15; France December CPI monthly rate final value at 15:45 on January 15; Germany's 2025 annual GDP growth rate at 17:00 on January 15; Eurozone November industrial output monthly rate at 18:00 on January 15; US initial jobless claims (in ten thousands) for the week ending January 10 at 21:30 on January 15 [1]