农产品早报-20260115

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an agricultural product morning report released by the research center's agricultural product team on January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Corn/Starch Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, corn prices in Changchun remained at 2160, and in some regions like Jinzhou, there were price changes; the corn base - point increased by 12; the import profit increased by 7; for starch, the base - point increased by 18, and the processing profit remained unchanged [2] Market Analysis - In the short - term, corn prices are expected to be moderately strong due to stable market sentiment, limited supply increase, low channel inventory, and downstream stocking expectations. In the long - term, focus on import and domestic auction policies. For starch, in the short - term, with stable supply and demand, the spot price is expected to be moderately strong, and focus on pre - holiday downstream stocking. In the long - term, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and post - season inventory changes [3] Group 3: Sugar Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the spot price in Nanning increased by 10, the base - point decreased by 46, the import profit from Thailand increased by 63, and from Brazil increased by 62, while the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [6] Market Analysis - In the international sugar market, the 25/26 northern hemisphere sugar season is expected to have increased production, and attention should be paid to whether the expected increase materializes. In the domestic market, in the short - term, the supply pressure of raw sugar has decreased, and the pricing can refer to domestic sugar costs and spot prices. In the long - term, if the global sugar market surplus intensifies, the price will seek the cost of out - of - quota imports [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton increased by 5, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 331, and the 32S spinning profit decreased by 10 [19] Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, favorable domestic consumption - promotion policies, and good export performance, cotton demand is expected to continue to improve. Also, the planting area in Xinjiang is expected to decrease in the new season, so cotton is suitable for long - term long positions [8] Group 5: Eggs Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the egg price in Hubei increased by 0.07, the basis decreased by 20, the price of white - feather broilers decreased by 0.05, and the price of live pigs increased by 0.02 [14] Market Analysis - The inflection point of egg inventory has appeared, but the base is still high. The key to the future decline in inventory lies in the culling rhythm. If culling accelerates, it is beneficial to egg prices in the second quarter. Currently, farmers in Hebei still expect the Spring Festival stocking market. If the spot price remains low before Laba, a large - scale culling is expected [15] Group 6: Apples Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the 1 - month basis decreased by 22, the 5 - month basis decreased by 155, and the 10 - month basis increased by 57 [17][18] Market Analysis - The trading atmosphere in the late - Fuji apple production area is still weak. High - quality apples maintain stable prices, while the prices of medium and low - quality apples are loose. As of January 7, 2026, the national apple cold - storage inventory decreased, and the inventory - removal speed increased slightly. In the short - term, the futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level, and in the medium - term, the pattern is strong in the near - term and weak in the long - term, and attention should be paid to the inventory - removal situation [18] Group 7: Pigs Price Data - From January 8 - 14, 2026, the price in Hubei Xiangyang and Anhui Hefei decreased by 0.05, and the basis decreased by 215 [18] Market Analysis - The weekend spot price of pigs first rose and then fell. Before the Spring Festival, there is an expectation of increased supply and demand, and there may still be a short - term mismatch between supply and demand. The improvement of capacity reduction has a positive impact on long - term sentiment, but price increases depend on further capacity and inventory reduction in the near - term. Attention should be paid to factors such as the slaughter rhythm, diseases, and policies [18]