Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various futures products, including financial derivatives, precious metals, shipping, non - ferrous metals, ferrous metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It assesses the market conditions, supply - demand relationships, and price trends of each product, and offers corresponding investment strategies and advice [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory Daily Selections - Tin: Market sentiment is strong, and tin prices have reached a record high. Supply may increase as Myanmar's tin mine复产 progresses, while demand shows regional differences. Short - term price fluctuations are large, and options are recommended for trading [2][31][35]. - LLDPE: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3]. - Coking Coal: Coal trading in Shanxi has improved, and Mongolian coal prices follow futures. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [3][59]. - Pigs: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [4][74]. Financial Derivatives Stock Index Futures - Market Conditions: A - shares were volatile at a high level. The TMT sector was hot, while the large - finance sector declined. The four major stock index futures contracts showed different trends, and the basis of some contracts changed [5][6]. - News: The margin ratio for margin trading has been adjusted, and overseas, the US is considering responses to the Iranian situation. A - share trading volume continued to increase, and the central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. - Operation Suggestions: A - shares may have limited downward space after a pull - back. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, avoid heavy - position chasing, and allocate IH appropriately. Use bull spreads for small - and medium - cap indexes [7]. Treasury Bond Futures - Market Performance: Most treasury bond futures closed higher. The yield of some bonds decreased [8]. - Funding Situation: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the net investment was 2122 billion yuan. The funding situation was tight, but the central bank's long - term investment may stabilize short - term fluctuations [8]. - Operation Suggestions: The bond market is in a short - term oscillating situation. It is recommended to continue to wait and see on a single - side strategy and tend to steepen the curve on a curve strategy [10]. Precious Metals - Market Review: US economic data showed consumption and inflation resilience. The Fed's Beige Book indicated economic improvement, and the dollar index was stable. Precious metals generally rose, with gold and silver reaching new highs [11][13]. - Outlook: The US economy and employment are weak. Geopolitical risks drive capital to allocate precious metals. Gold is expected to maintain a strong - oscillating trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. Silver is expected to have a higher price center, and platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to - long term [13][14]. Shipping (Container Shipping Index - European Line) - Index Performance: The SCFIS European line index and some shipping rates increased, while the SCFI composite index decreased slightly [15]. - Fundamentals: Global container capacity increased, and demand in the eurozone and the US showed different trends [15]. - Logic and Suggestions: The futures price oscillated upwards, but the spot price is in a downward cycle. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [15]. Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper: Copper prices are at a high level, and inventories are accumulating. Supply and demand are affected by factors such as US inflation data and the situation in Venezuela. The medium - to - long - term fundamentals are good, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly and cautiously [16][19]. - Alumina: The spot price is loose, and the futures price oscillates widely. The core contradiction is between policy expectations and a weak fundamental situation. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and go short on rallies in the medium term [20][22]. - Aluminum: The price is strong, driven by macro and policy expectations. However, the fundamental situation is under pressure, with increasing supply and weakening demand. It is recommended not to chase the price and consider long positions after a pull - back [23][25]. - Zinc: The price center has shifted upwards, and the spot premium has decreased. Supply is affected by mine shortages and smelter production cuts, and demand is suppressed by high prices. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long term and hold cross - market reverse arbitrage positions [28][31]. - Tin: The price has reached a record high. Supply may increase, and demand shows regional differences. It is recommended to wait and see [31][35]. - Nickel: The price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease slightly, and demand varies in different sectors. The market is affected by Indonesian policies and geopolitical factors. It is recommended to have a bullish view [35][38]. - Stainless Steel: The price oscillates strongly, driven by raw material costs. Supply pressure eases slightly, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is recommended to expect a strong - oscillating trend [39][41]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price oscillates widely. Supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand has some resilience. Social inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to wait and see [43][45]. - Polysilicon: The futures price oscillates, with support at 48,000 yuan/ton. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46][48]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures price oscillates strongly. Supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to production cut implementation [48][50]. Ferrous Metals - Steel: Inventory has entered the seasonal accumulation phase, and steel prices oscillate. Spot prices are stable to weak, costs are rising, and production is increasing. It is expected to oscillate in January [50][52]. - Iron Ore: Supply is facing the off - season, and port inventories are accumulating. The futures price oscillates at a high level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand has some support. It is recommended to trade within a range [53][54]. - Coking Coal: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing slightly, demand for restocking is warming up, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [55][59]. - Coke: The price oscillates. After the fourth price cut, the market is stable. Supply and demand are improving, and it is recommended to go long on dips and consider arbitrage strategies [60][64]. - Silicon Iron: The price oscillates. Supply is at a low level, and demand has some support from steelmaking and non - steel sectors. It is recommended to go long on dips [65][66]. - Manganese Silicon: The price oscillates. Supply is at a neutral - to - low level, and demand has support from steelmaking. Manganese ore prices are strong. It is recommended to go long on dips [67][70]. Agricultural Products - Meal: The auction premium is limited, and soybean meal oscillates. The US soybean supply and demand situation affects the market, and domestic supply is abundant. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [71][73]. - Pigs: Driven by capital sentiment, the futures price has strengthened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating, supply in January is expected to be abundant, and it is recommended to go short after stabilization [74][75]. - Corn: The supply is tight, and the price oscillates at a high level. Northeast China has a strong reluctance to sell, and downstream demand for restocking exists. Policy auctions are ongoing. It is recommended to pay attention to farmers' selling attitudes and policy implementation [76][78]. - Sugar: The international raw sugar price oscillates weakly, and the domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Brazilian and Indian production situations affect the market, and domestic sales are affected by the Spring Festival [79][80]. - Cotton: The US cotton price oscillates at a low level, and the domestic cotton price stops falling and stabilizes. The US cotton supply and demand situation and domestic inventory and sales affect the market [81][83]. - Eggs: Egg prices are stable to rising, and the market digestion speed is acceptable. Supply is in an oversupply situation, and demand is supported by the Spring Festival. It is expected to oscillate at a low level [84][85]. - Oils and Fats: The prices of various oils and fats oscillate. Palm oil is affected by inventory pressure, soybean oil is affected by the US - Iran relationship and supply, and rapeseed oil is affected by multiple factors. It is recommended to pay attention to price trends [86][88]. - Jujubes: The futures price rebounds, but the supply - demand situation is still oversupplied. It is recommended to short on rallies and test the support at 9000 yuan/ton [89][90]. - Apples: The futures price is strong, driven by market sentiment. Short - term factors support the price, but long - term consumption may be affected. It is recommended to use long positions with put - option protection [91]. Energy Chemicals - PX: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term and have limited downward space in the medium term [92][93]. - PTA: The price rebound is under pressure. Supply is at a high level, and demand is weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short term and have a low - long strategy in the medium term [94]. - Short - Fiber: The supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to follow raw materials and oscillate. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and shrink the processing fee on a high level [95]. - Bottle Chips: Supply and demand are both decreasing in January. It is expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to do the same as PTA on a single - side strategy and expect the processing fee to oscillate within a certain range [96][97]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price is under pressure. Supply is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4000 yuan for EG2605, do reverse arbitrage for EG5 - 9, and sell out - of - the - money call options [98]. - Pure Benzene: The price is under pressure due to high inventory. Demand has improved slightly. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread [99]. - Styrene: The price is short - term strong but has limited upward space. Supply is tight in the short term, but there is an inventory accumulation expectation during the Spring Festival. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for EB03 and shrink the processing fee [100][101]. - LLDPE: Upstream prices have risen, and hedging transactions are booming. Supply is expected to increase, demand is in a seasonal off - peak, and some long positions are recommended to be closed [3][102][103]. - PP: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. Supply and demand are both weak, and inventory pressure has eased. It is recommended to hold PDH profit - expanding positions [103][105]. - Methanol: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [105]. - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to be weak. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to downstream procurement and chlorine price fluctuations [106][107]. - PVC: The price is affected by export policies. Supply is stable, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for short - selling positions [108][109]. - Urea: The price center has shifted upwards. Supply is high, but agricultural demand in the Su - Wan region has increased. It is expected to be strong in the short term [110][111]. - Soda Ash: The price oscillates. Supply is increasing, and demand is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [113][114]. - Glass: The price is strong. Supply is decreasing, and demand has some support. It is recommended to wait and see [114][115]. - Natural Rubber: The price oscillates within a range. Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [116][118]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price is expected to be strong in the short term. Cost is rising, and demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and do arbitrage between BR2603 and NR2603 [119][120][121].
广发早知道：汇总版-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:16