有色套利早报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - The report provides cross - market, cross - period, spot - futures, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data for various non - ferrous metals including copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, and tin on January 15, 2026 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: On January 15, 2026, the domestic spot price was 104360, LME price was 13292, and the ratio was 7.67; the domestic March price was 104120, LME price was 13248, and the ratio was 7.90. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 7.91 with a profit of - 1395.64, and the equilibrium ratio for spot export was 103.83 [1] - Zinc: The domestic spot price was 24590, LME price was 3205, and the ratio was 7.67; the domestic March price was 24475, LME price was 3220, and the ratio was 5.43. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.33 with a profit of - 2101.93 [1] - Aluminum: The domestic spot price was 24670, LME price was 3209, and the ratio was 7.69; the domestic March price was 24595, LME price was 3192, and the ratio was 7.80. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.32 with a profit of - 2016.71 [1] - Nickel: The domestic spot price was 140850, LME price was 17561, and the ratio was 8.02. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.01 with a profit of 863.23 [1] - Lead: The domestic spot price was 17275, LME price was 2013, and the ratio was 8.56; the domestic March price was 17385, LME price was 2056, and the ratio was 11.95. The equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.53 with a profit of 60.24 [3] Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: On January 15, 2026, the spreads of the next month, March, April, and May relative to the spot month were 1780, 2030, 2050, and 2260 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 612, 1123, 1642, and 2162 respectively [4] - Zinc: The spreads were 225, 275, 310, and 310 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 224, 354, 484, and 614 respectively [4] - Aluminum: The spreads were 245, 300, 340, and 380 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 232, 366, 499, and 633 respectively [4] - Lead: The spreads were 0, 70, 100, and 105 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 212, 319, 427, and 534 respectively [4] - Nickel: The spreads were 740, 940, 1280, and 1590 respectively [4] - Tin: The 5 - 1 spread was 2340, and the theoretical spread was 8388 [4] Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - Copper: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 1735 and 45 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were - 238 and 595 respectively [4] - Zinc: The spreads were - 390 and - 165 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 47 and 189 respectively [4][5] - Lead: The spreads were 40 and 40 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 82 and 197 respectively [5] Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On January 15, 2026, for cross - variety arbitrage, the ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in Shanghai (three - continuous) were 4.25, 4.23, 5.99, 1.00, 1.41, and 0.71 respectively, and in London (three - continuous) were 4.03, 4.14, 6.35, 0.97, 1.53, and 0.63 respectively [5]