芳烃橡胶早报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA: Near - term TA device slightly reduces load, polyester load remains stable, inventory continues to decline, but polyester maintenance plans are intensively released, basis weakens, and spot processing fees shrink. PX domestic operation is at a high level, and overseas load increases. In the future, with high PX profits, domestic supply will remain high and overseas operation will recover, reducing the de - stocking amplitude in the far - month. TA's own processing fees have also improved, and short - term upward space is limited before the Spring Festival due to polyester maintenance plans. However, the overall pattern has not changed before new device production. Attention should be paid to the progress of overseas operation improvement [1] - MEG: Near - term domestic oil - based production has some load reduction, overseas maintenance increases month - on - month. Port inventory decreases at the beginning of the week due to low arrivals, and the arrival forecast rebounds during the week. The basis remains weak, and coal - based efficiency improves month - on - month. Recently, domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, overseas maintenance increases, overall inventory accumulation continues, and the absolute inventory is not low. The pattern is expected to remain weak under new production, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber: The front - end device operates stably, with an operation rate of 97.6%. Production and sales improve month - on - month, and inventory slightly decreases. On the demand side, the operation rate of the polyester yarn end remains stable, raw material inventory decreases, and finished product inventory accumulates, with stable efficiency. After raw material price adjustments, the spot processing fee of staple fiber has improved, but the futures price remains low. Downstream demand is expected to continue to weaken seasonally. With limited inventory pressure, the operation rate remains high. It has a medium - low valuation and weak driving force, with limited overall contradictions. Attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts [1] - Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber: No specific overall view on the trend is provided in the report, only price data and changes are presented - Styrene and Related Products: No specific overall view on the trend is provided in the report, only price and profit data and their changes are presented 3. Summary by Related Content PTA - Price and Spread Data: From January 8 - 14, 2026, crude oil prices rose from $62.0 to $65.0, PX processing fees decreased from $345.0 to $337.0, PTA spot prices fluctuated, and the basis was 2605(- 70) [1] - Device and Operation Conditions: Yisheng New Materials' 3.6 million - ton device and Ineos' 1.25 million - ton device are under maintenance. Near - term TA device slightly reduces load, and polyester load remains at 78.2% [1] - Market Outlook: PX high - profit situation leads to high domestic supply and overseas operation recovery, reducing the far - month de - stocking amplitude. TA processing fees improve, and short - term upward space is limited [1] MEG - Price and Spread Data: From January 8 - 14, 2026, MEG prices fluctuated slightly, and the basis was around 05(- 148) [1] - Device and Operation Conditions: Inner Mongolia Yankuang's 400,000 - ton device increases load. Near - term domestic oil - based production has some load reduction, and overseas maintenance increases month - on - month [1] - Market Outlook: Domestic supply is stable with a slight increase, overseas maintenance increases, overall inventory accumulates, and the pattern is expected to remain weak [1] Polyester Staple Fiber - Price and Spread Data: The spot price is around 6529, and the market basis is around 02 - 80 [1] - Device and Operation Conditions: The front - end device operates stably at an operation rate of 97.6%, production and sales improve, and inventory slightly decreases. The operation rate of the polyester yarn end remains stable [1] - Market Outlook: After raw material price adjustments, the spot processing fee improves, but the futures price remains low. Downstream demand weakens seasonally, and with limited inventory pressure, the operation rate remains high [1] Natural Rubber and 20 - grade Rubber - Price Data: From January 8 - 14, 2026, prices of various types of rubber, such as Shanghai whole - milk rubber and Thai cup - lump rubber, fluctuated, with some showing daily and weekly increases or decreases [1] Styrene and Related Products - Price and Profit Data: From January 8 - 14, 2026, prices of styrene and related products, such as ethylene and pure benzene, changed, and the production profits of PS, EPS, and ABS also fluctuated [1]