Report General Information - Report Title: Treasury Bond Daily Report [1] - Date: January 15, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] - Team: Macro Finance Team [4] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - On January 14, the stock - bond seesaw was obvious. The morning export data exceeded expectations but had little impact on the bond market. Treasury bond futures were weakly running, and in the afternoon, the stock market decline drove the straight - line rise of treasury bond futures, with most rising at the close [8] - Bank - to - bank main - term interest rate spot bond yields fluctuated within a narrow range, with the long - end active bonds declining by about 1bp. By 16:30, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.8545%, down 0.55bp [9] - The tight state of the inter - bank capital market has improved. The net reverse repurchase investment in the open market today was 212.2 billion yuan. 900 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations will be carried out tomorrow, with 600 billion yuan due this month, resulting in a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index was high in the morning and gradually declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR in the bank - deposit market fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.39%, the 7 - day capital interest rate rose 1.9bp to 1.57%, the medium - and long - term funds were stable, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated within a narrow range around 1.63 - 1.64% [10] - In December, the bond market was weakly volatile. In January, the bond market entered a stage where negative factors were gradually materializing. After the initial stage of large supply and demand mismatch passed and the central bank was likely to provide support before the Spring Festival, the market's loose expectations might heat up again, bringing opportunities for the low - level repair of treasury bond futures. The bond market yield in January might first rise and then fall. This week is an intensive economic data release window. Treasury bond futures might stabilize at a low level [11][12] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Conditions: The stock - bond seesaw was obvious on January 14. Export data in the morning had little impact on the bond market. Treasury bond futures were weakly running in the morning and rose in the afternoon due to the stock market decline [8] - Interest Rate Spot Bonds: Yields of bank - to - bank main - term interest rate spot bonds fluctuated narrowly, with long - end active bonds down about 1bp. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250016 reported 1.8545%, down 0.55bp [9] - Funding Market: The tight state of the inter - bank capital market improved. The net reverse repurchase investment was 212.2 billion yuan today, and 900 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations will be carried out tomorrow, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. The inter - bank capital sentiment index declined in the afternoon. The overnight DR fluctuated around 1.39%, the 7 - day funds rate rose 1.9bp to 1.57%, and the 1 - year AAA certificate of deposit interest rate fluctuated around 1.63 - 1.64% [10] - Conclusion: The bond market was weakly volatile in December. In January, negative factors are gradually materializing. After the initial supply - demand mismatch stage, the central bank's support before the Spring Festival might bring low - level repair opportunities for treasury bond futures. The yield might first rise and then fall. This week is an intensive economic data release window, and treasury bond futures might stabilize at a low level [11][12] 2. Industry News - The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced the continuation of the policy of refunding individual income tax for home - swapping residents from January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027 [13] - In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%. Exports were 26.99 trillion yuan, up 6.1%, and imports were 18.48 trillion yuan, up 0.5%. In December 2025, exports increased by 5.2% in RMB terms and 6.6% in US dollars terms, while imports increased by 4.4% in RMB terms and 5.7% in US dollars terms [14] - The central bank carried out 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 14, with a net investment of 212.2 billion yuan, and will conduct 900 billion yuan of 6 - month outright reverse repurchase operations tomorrow [14] - Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on countries with business with Iran, and the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson responded that China will firmly safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. Regarding the G7 finance ministers' agreement to accelerate the reduction of rare - earth imports from China, the spokesperson stated that China's position on maintaining the stability and security of the global supply chain of critical minerals remains unchanged [15] 3. Data Overview - Treasury Bond Futures Market: Details of trading data for various treasury bond futures contracts on January 14 are provided, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and position change [6] - Data Sources: All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [6][18][21]
建信期货国债日报-20260115
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:22