集运早报-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For the EC2602 contract, it is moving towards the delivery logic, and its subsequent performance will be affected by the spot market. With a neutral valuation currently, it is not recommended to enter the market [3]. - For the EC2604 contract, attention should be paid to the spot market and actual rush - shipping situations. The expected decline in the Week 5 MSK opening price may suppress the market, but the increasing rush - shipping scale due to falling freight rates may weaken the price decline slope in March. The valuation fluctuates widely within a reasonable range, and it is advisable to watch for potential correction opportunities [3]. - The adjustment of export tax rebates is negative for the far - month contracts. Considering significant geopolitical disturbances in the far - month contracts, it is generally recommended to short the 10 - contract on rallies [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content Market Data - Contract Prices and Changes: On January 15, 2026, the closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, and EC2610 were 1718.0 (down 0.14%), 1230.5 (up 2.57%), 1424.1 (up 0.75%), 1532.6 (up 0.18%), and 1118.0 (up 0.96%) respectively. The trading volumes were 5642, 45075, 1903, 212, and 1822, and the open interests were 10461 (down 1401), 40044 (up 1274), 3130 (down 134), 1306 (down 53), and 7625 (up 179) [2]. - Month - spread: The month - spreads of EC2502 - 2604 and EC2504 - 2606 were 487.5 and - 193.6 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 33.2 and 20.2 [2]. - Shipping Indexes: The SCFIS (European Line) on January 12, 2026, was 1956.39 points, up 8.94% from the previous period; the SCFI (European Line) on January 9, 2026, was 1719 dollars/TEU, up 1.72% [2]. Spot Market Conditions - Week 3: MSK opened at 2600 dollars, other alliances had small declines. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - Week 4: MSK opened at 2700 dollars, other alliances remained stable. The central price was 2750 dollars, equivalent to about 1930 points [4]. - Week 5: MSK opened at 2400 dollars (down 300 dollars from the previous week), YML quoted 2650 dollars, MSC quoted 2640 dollars. The overall central price was 2650 dollars (equivalent to 1855 points). On Wednesday, YML offered special prices of 2250 dollars for two routes [4]. News - Palestinian Cease - fire Agreement: On January 15, Palestinian factions reached a consensus on the second - stage requirements of the Gaza cease - fire agreement and on establishing an independent committee to manage Gaza [5]. - US and Iran Situation: The US special envoy launched the second stage of the "ten - point plan" to end the Gaza conflict; Iran closed its airspace; Trump hinted at postponing military action against Iran, causing international oil prices to drop by 4% [6].