建信期货股指日评-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: January 15, 2026 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - With the strengthening of the expectation of domestic economic improvement, the slow - bull pattern of A - shares is gradually stabilizing, and the long - term bullish thinking remains unchanged. Although affected by news factors, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the market is at a critical position where the Shanghai Composite Index is approaching 4200 points, short - term adjustment and energy accumulation are inevitable. It is recommended to observe the support around 4100 points of the Shanghai Composite Index and mainly go long at low levels [8][9] 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Outlook - Market Review: On January 14, the Wind All - A Index rose 0.31% with increased trading volume. About 50% of stocks in the market rose. The CSI 300 and SSE 50 closed down 0.40% and 0.67% respectively, while the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 closed up 1.04% and 0.66% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IH, and IM closed down 0.39%, 0.75%, and 0.05% respectively, and the IC main contract closed up 1.04% [6] - Outlook: In the external market, the US core CPI annual rate in December was 2.6%, lower than the expected 2.7%, and the monthly rate was 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating a cooling of inflation. The inflation data slightly increased the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in April, but the probability of no rate cut in January and March is high. In the domestic market, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading, raising the minimum margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new margin - trading contracts, which cooled market sentiment. The total trading volume in the market has been increasing recently, reaching nearly 4 trillion yuan, indicating an increase in market risk appetite [8] 4.2 Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts showing the performance of domestic major indexes, market styles, industry sectors, trading volumes of the Wind All - A Index, stock index spot and futures, positions of stock index futures, basis trends of main contracts, inter - period spread trends, and statistics of shares and trading volumes of major ETF funds. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [11][13][14] 4.3 Industry News - On January 14, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges adjusted the margin ratio for margin trading. Historically, the margin ratio has changed several times. The current adjustment is to moderately increase the margin ratio back to 100% due to the recent active margin trading and relatively abundant market liquidity, aiming to reduce the leverage level, protect investors' rights, and promote the long - term stable and healthy development of the market [27]