贵金属日评-20260115

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In 2026, precious metals, especially industrial precious metals, will continue to perform strongly under the influence of factors such as the restructuring of the international political and economic landscape, the Fed's loose monetary policy, the improvement of the global economic growth outlook, and the substitution demand of silver and platinum for gold jewelry. Investors are advised to adopt a bullish trading approach but control the position size, and short hedgers should appropriately reduce the hedging ratio [4]. - The mid - term trend in 2026 will continue the medium - term upward trend since 2024. Silver and platinum will outperform gold, but the large influx of investment funds will also lead to significant price volatility. Investors can consider cross - variety arbitrage, and long hedgers should hedge in batches as soon as possible [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook - Intraday Market: The easing of inflation pressure in the US in December 2025 provides a basis for the Fed's loose monetary policy in 2026. The expectation of Fed rate cuts and geopolitical risks drive the precious metals sector to perform strongly. London gold approaches the $4650/ounce mark, and London silver briefly breaks through the $91/ounce mark. The adjustment risk in precious metals has been fully released, and the market will continue to be strong [4]. - Domestic Precious Metals Market Data: The previous closing price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, daily change rate, open interest, and change in open interest of domestic precious metals such as Shanghai Gold Index, Shanghai Silver Index, Guangzhou Platinum Index, and Guangzhou Palladium Index are presented [5]. - Mid - term Market: Geopolitical risks may rise significantly in 2026. The restructuring of the global political and economic landscape and the loose monetary policy of central banks will boost the demand for reserve diversification, strategic value, and liquidity premium of precious metals. Silver and platinum will perform better than gold, and their industrial and physical demands are expected to increase [6]. II. Precious Metals Market - Related Charts - Multiple charts are provided, including Shanghai gold and silver futures indices, London gold and silver spot prices, the basis of Shanghai futures indices against Shanghai Gold TD, gold and silver ETF holdings, the gold - silver ratio, and the correlation between London gold and other assets [8][10][12]. III. Major Macroeconomic Events/Data - Global central bank presidents and Wall Street bank CEOs support Fed Chairman Powell, highlighting the importance of the Fed and central bank independence [16]. - The Trump administration allows NVIDIA to sell its second - most powerful AI chips to China, but China restricts the purchase of H200 chips [16]. - US consumer prices rose in December 2025, strengthening the expectation that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged this month [17]. - Venezuela's state - owned oil company reopens some oil wells and resumes crude oil exports, which may be part of a 50 - million - barrel supply agreement with the US [17].