建信期货聚烯烃日报-20260115

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a daily report on the polyolefin industry, dated January 15, 2026, from the Energy and Chemical Research Team of CCB Futures [1] - The team includes researchers for different products such as polyolefin, crude oil and fuel oil, PTA and MEG, urea and industrial silicon, pulp, and glass and soda ash [2] Group 2: Market Quotes - In the futures market, plastic contracts (L2601, L2605, L2609) and PP contracts (PP2601, PP2605, PP2609) all showed price increases. For example, L2605 closed at 6820 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton (1.26%), and PP2605 closed at 6590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton (0.76%) [3][4] - The trading volume of L2605 was 560,000 lots, and its open interest decreased by 10,862 lots to 466,526 lots. The open interest of PP2605 decreased by 9,082 lots to 484,400 lots [4] Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated slightly up, supporting the market atmosphere with terminal rigid - demand replenishment. Polypropylene's supply pressure was relieved due to more temporary maintenance, while plastic's supply pressure increased slightly due to lower maintenance losses and concentrated arrival of imported cargoes [4] - The demand for mulch film drove a slight increase in the agricultural film industry's operating rate, but other operating rates were basically stable. Some downstream factories' replenishment increased slightly but was limited. Enterprises' resistance to high prices restricted price increases [4] - In the short term, due to the threat to crude oil supply from the Iranian situation, the geopolitical premium was released, driving the continuous rise of crude oil prices and the rebound of polyolefins from low levels. However, with supply recovery and demand entering the off - season inventory digestion cycle, the fundamental support was not solid, and prices were expected to rise first and then fall. Attention should be paid to cost - side changes [4] Group 4: Industry News - On January 14, 2026, the inventory level of major producers was 590,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons (1.67%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 580,000 tons [5] - PE market prices mostly rose. LLDPE prices in North China were 6,680 - 6,950 yuan/ton, in East China were 6,850 - 7,100 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6,900 - 7,200 yuan/ton [5] - The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was temporarily 5,940 - 6,000 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The supply side had no obvious pressure, producers still had a certain willingness to support prices, the cost pressure on major downstream enterprises was temporarily controllable, and downstream factories mainly waited and watched for purchases at low prices, with little change in overall market trading [5] - The continuous rise of PP futures boosted the spot market atmosphere. Due to the fast pre - sales rhythm, producers' inventory pressure was not large, and most factory prices were raised. The mainstream quotes of drawn PP in North China were 6,330 - 6,500 yuan/ton, in East China were 6,370 - 6,500 yuan/ton, and in South China were 6,300 - 6,600 yuan/ton [5] Group 5: Data Overview - The report presents various data charts including L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year change rate, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [7][10][13]