《黑色》日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Steel exports are expected to remain high due to low valuations and some export - grabbing factors. Before the Spring Festival, the domestic market is weak, and prices have fully priced in weak demand. The overall steel market is expected to fluctuate within a range in January. The reference range for the May contract of rebar is 3050 - 3250 yuan; for hot - rolled coils, it is 3200 - 3350 yuan [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The iron ore market will gradually transition to a situation of weak supply and demand. Prices are expected to remain high and volatile, with high inventory suppressing the upside and steel mill restocking expectations and molten iron production recovery providing support. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, and the trading strategy is range - bound operation, with a reference range of 770 - 830 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - For coke, the futures market has fallen in advance, and the spot price decline depends on the coking coal price drop. After the fourth round of spot price cuts, some coke enterprises resist price cuts and limit production to protect prices. The recommended strategy is to go long on the dips and consider the arbitrage of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, the pre - Spring Festival restocking demand drives the market. The strategy is also to go long on the dips and consider the same arbitrage [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, and production has reached a historically low level. Demand has some support, and costs also provide support. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5500. For ferromanganese, the supply is at a historically neutral - low level, and demand has support. Manganese ore prices support the ferromanganese price. It is recommended to go long on the dips, with a reference support level of around 5800 [7]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices show different changes. For example, rebar 01 contract increased by 10 yuan, while hot - rolled coil 01 contract decreased by 49 yuan [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. The cost of steelmaking in Jiangsu increased, and the profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased [1]. Supply - The daily average molten iron output increased by 1.6 to 229.0, a 0.7% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 3.4 to 818.6, a 0.4% increase [1]. Demand - The total apparent demand of steel has recovered. The export of steel remains high [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 21.8 to 1253.9, a 1.8% increase. Rebar inventory increased, while hot - rolled coil inventory decreased [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The basis of some iron ore varieties decreased, and the 5 - 9 and 1 - 5 spreads increased [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 164.0 to 2920.4, a 5.9% increase, while the global shipment volume decreased by 32.8 to 3213.7, a 1.0% decrease [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 2.1 to 229.5, a 0.9% increase. The 45 - port daily average ore - unloading volume decreased by 1.9 to 323.3, a 0.6% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 304.4 to 16275.26, a 1.9% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills' imported ore increased by 43.0 to 8989.6, a 0.5% increase [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices changed slightly. For example, the coke 05 contract decreased by 7 yuan, and the coking coal 05 contract increased by 6 yuan [6]. Supply - Coke production increased slightly, and coking coal production showed a small - scale recovery [6]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased, and the demand for coke and coking coal increased [6]. Inventory - The overall inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly, with different inventory changes in different sectors [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices were relatively stable. The prices of some spot products remained unchanged [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in some regions increased slightly, and the production profit decreased [7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production was basically flat, and ferromanganese production decreased slightly [7]. Demand - The demand for ferrosilicon and ferromanganese from the steelmaking industry had some support due to the recovery of molten iron production [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon in 60 sample enterprises increased, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises of ferromanganese decreased [7].