《能源化工》日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE: Supply is expected to increase marginally, and demand enters the seasonal off - season with weakening downstream开工率. There is a positive feedback in the spot market, and the sustainability of demand should be monitored [1]. - PP: Both supply and demand are weak. There are many maintenance plans, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in January. The balance has improved significantly, and attention should be paid to the implementation of maintenance plans [1]. Methanol Industry - The methanol futures are oscillating strongly. The inland price is expected to oscillate, and the port price is restricted by factors such as low MTO profits and potential maintenance of MTO devices [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, but it is driven by the strong performance of styrene and oil prices. The short - term trend is strong. It is recommended to wait and see for BZ2603 unilaterally and narrow the EB - BZ spread when it is high [5]. - Styrene: The short - term supply - demand is tight, but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation around the Spring Festival, and the upward space is limited. It is recommended to look for shorting opportunities for EB03 and narrow the EB processing fee when it is high [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - The rubber price is expected to oscillate in the range of 15,500 - 16,500. The raw material price provides support at the lower end, and the weak demand suppresses the upper end. Attention should be paid to the raw material output in Thailand [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Soda ash: The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the production load adjustment and inventory situation of soda ash plants [9]. - Glass: The price is expected to continue to weaken in the short term and can be treated bearishly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - The oil price is generally strong due to the instability in Iran, but the increase is limited by the weak supply - demand expectation. Attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia - Ukraine peace talks and the Middle East situation [11]. LPG Industry No specific views provided in the report other than price and inventory data. Polyester Industry - PX: The short - term price is expected to oscillate at a high level before the Spring Festival, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for PX5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - PTA: The short - term price is expected to oscillate between 5,000 - 5,300, and the mid - term can be treated bullishly at low levels. It is recommended to do a long - short spread for TA5 - 9 at a low level [16]. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at around 4,000 for EG2605, do a short - long spread for EG5 - 9 at a high level, and sell out - of - the - money call options EG2605 - C - 4100 at a high level [16]. - Short fiber: The price is driven by raw materials in the short term. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally and narrow the PF processing fee when it is high [16]. - Bottle chips: The price and processing fee are expected to follow the cost side. It is recommended to have the same strategy as PTA unilaterally [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Caustic soda: The price is expected to be stable and weak. Attention should be paid to the procurement volume of the main downstream and the price fluctuation of liquid chlorine [18]. - PVC: The fundamentals are still under pressure, but the short - term price fluctuates emotionally. It is recommended to wait and see for short positions [18]. Urea Industry - The urea price is expected to be strong in the short term. Attention should be paid to the follow - up of downstream agricultural demand and the resumption rhythm of devices [19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - Prices and Spreads: Futures and spot prices of LLDPE and PP increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as L59, PP59, and LP05 [1]. - Inventory: PE enterprise inventory decreased by 11.41%, and PP trader inventory decreased by 5.28% [1]. - 开工率: PE装置开工率 increased by 0.52%, and PP装置开工率 decreased by 1.65% [1]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: Methanol futures and spot prices increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as MA59 and regional spreads [3]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory increased by 0.73%, and port inventory decreased by 6.63% [3]. - 开工率: The upstream domestic enterprise开工率 increased by 0.54%, and some downstream device开工率 decreased [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of pure benzene, styrene, and related products increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as EB - BZ [5]. - Inventory: The pure benzene port inventory reached a record high, and the styrene port inventory decreased significantly [5]. - 开工率: The开工率 of some pure benzene and styrene downstream industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [5]. Natural Rubber Industry - Prices and Spreads: The spot price of natural rubber increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as the 9 - 1 spread [6]. - Inventory: The bonded area inventory increased by 3.62%, and the factory - warehouse futures inventory decreased by 1.74% [6]. - Production and开工率: The production in Thailand, Indonesia, and other countries decreased in November, and the开工率 of automobile tires changed [6]. Glass - Soda Ash Industry - Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of glass and soda ash were generally stable, and there were changes in futures prices and spreads [9]. - Inventory: The glass factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 5.69%, and the soda ash factory - warehouse inventory increased by 4.25% [9]. - Supply and开工率: The开工率 and supply of soda ash remained at a high level, and the glass melting volume and产能利用率 decreased slightly [9]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil increased, and there were changes in various spreads such as Brent - WTI [11]. - Refined Oil: The prices of refined oil products such as NYM RBOB and NYM ULSD increased, and there were changes in cracking spreads [11]. LPG Industry - Prices and Spreads: The LPG futures prices changed slightly, and the spot price increased. There were changes in various spreads such as PG02 - 03 [14]. - Inventory: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio decreased by 1.94%, and the port inventory decreased by 0.41% [14]. - 开工率: The upstream main refinery开工率 increased by 2.49%, and the downstream PDH开工率 increased by 0.68% [14]. Polyester Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products changed, and there were changes in various spreads such as PX - naphtha [16]. - Inventory: The MEG port inventory increased [16]. - 开工率: The开工率 of PX, PTA, and polyester products changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. PVC - Caustic Soda Industry - Prices and Spreads: The prices of PVC and caustic soda decreased slightly, and there were changes in various spreads such as V2605 - V2601 [18]. - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda and PVC increased [18]. - 开工率: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [18]. Urea Industry - Prices and Spreads: The urea futures price increased, and the spot price was stable with a slight upward trend. There were changes in various spreads and basis [19]. - Inventory: The domestic urea factory - warehouse inventory decreased by 3.53%, and the port inventory remained unchanged [19]. - Supply and Demand: The daily and weekly production of urea increased, and the agricultural demand in some regions increased [19].