Report Industry Investment Ratings - No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Reports Lithium - The lithium market has shown price increases across various lithium products. The futures market experienced wide - range fluctuations, with the main contract LC2605 falling 3.53% to 161,940. In the short - term, the market is expected to have wide - range oscillations in the 155,000 - 165,000 range. Attention should be paid to positive spread opportunities between months, and unilateral trading is advised to be on hold for the time being [1]. Nickel - The nickel price is expected to strengthen in the short - term, with the main contract's central reference in the 140,000 - 155,000 range. The trading is mainly influenced by macro factors and the rhythm of Indonesia's nickel ore RKAB quota, and the current tightening expectation of the ore end is dominant [3]. Stainless Steel - The stainless steel market is expected to have a relatively strong oscillation, with the main contract reference range of 13,800 - 14,500 yuan/ton. The market is influenced by strong cost support from the raw material end and weak demand, and future trends depend on raw material news and downstream inventory - building [6]. Tin - The tin price is affected by market sentiment and shows significant short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to be cautious in futures operations and consider using options for participation [8]. Aluminum and Alumina - Alumina prices are expected to have wide - range oscillations around the industry's cash cost line, with the main contract reference range of 2,600 - 2,950 yuan/ton. The aluminum price is likely to maintain a high - level wide - range oscillation, with the main contract operating range of 23,000 - 25,000 yuan/ton [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The cast aluminum alloy market is expected to have high - level range oscillations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 24,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw material supply stability, downstream pre - holiday inventory - building, and the impact of high prices on demand [11]. Copper - The medium - and long - term fundamentals of copper are still good. In the short - term, the price trend is strong, mainly due to the risk of global inventory structural imbalance and the risk premium of metal supply concerns. The price is expected to remain strong in the short - term, with core attention on CL premium changes and LME inventory changes, and support at 99,000 - 100,000 [12]. Zinc - The zinc price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at around 24,000. Attention should be paid to zinc ore TC and refined zinc inventory changes [15]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation, with the main price fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to demand - side production changes [18]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon price is expected to have support at the 48,000 yuan/ton level. In the cooling cycle, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to future production cuts and downstream demand recovery [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price rose to 163,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2.19%. Other lithium products also showed price increases, and the basis of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate changed significantly [1]. Fundamental Data - In December, lithium carbonate production increased, while demand decreased. The inventory of lithium carbonate decreased overall, with a significant reduction in smelter inventory [1]. Nickel Price and Basis - The prices of various nickel products increased, and the import profit and loss of nickel futures and the LME 0 - 3 spread changed. The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from different raw materials also had corresponding changes [3]. Supply and Demand and Inventory - China's refined nickel production decreased, while imports increased. The inventory of SHFE and social inventory increased, while LME inventory decreased slightly [3]. Stainless Steel Price and Basis - The spot price of stainless steel was relatively stable, and the futures - spot price difference decreased. The prices of raw materials such as nickel ore and high - nickel pig iron increased slightly [6]. Fundamental Data - China's 300 - series stainless steel production decreased, while exports increased. The social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel decreased [6]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of tin increased significantly, and the LME 0 - 3 spread also increased [8]. Fundamental Data - In November, tin ore imports increased, and in December, the production of refined tin was basically stable. The import and export volumes of refined tin increased, and the inventory decreased [8]. Aluminum and Alumina Price and Spread - The price of aluminum increased, and the price of alumina decreased slightly. The import profit and loss of electrolytic aluminum and alumina changed, and the monthly spread of aluminum also had corresponding adjustments [9]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of alumina decreased, while the production of electrolytic aluminum increased. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased, and the inventory of alumina also increased [9]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 increased, and the refined - scrap price difference of various aluminum alloys also increased [11]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and the operating rates of recycled and primary aluminum alloy enterprises decreased. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy decreased slightly [11]. Copper Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper increased, and the refined - scrap price difference increased significantly. The import profit and loss and monthly spread of copper also changed [12]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased, while imports decreased. The inventory of various copper products increased [12]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot increased, and the import profit and loss and monthly spread of zinc changed [15]. Fundamental Data - In December, the production of refined zinc decreased, and exports increased significantly. The operating rates of downstream zinc - related industries were mixed, and the inventory increased [15]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Basis - The spot price of industrial silicon was stable, and the basis decreased. The monthly spread of the futures contract also changed [18]. Fundamental Data - The national production of industrial silicon decreased, and the production in different regions had different trends. The production of downstream products such as organic silicon and polysilicon also changed, and the inventory decreased slightly [18]. Polysilicon Spot Price, Futures Price, and Spread - The polysilicon spot price was stable, the futures price was weakly oscillating, and the monthly spread of the futures contract changed [19]. Fundamental Data - The weekly production of polysilicon decreased slightly, and the monthly production increased slightly. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed, and the inventory of polysilicon decreased slightly while the silicon wafer inventory increased [19].
《有色》日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-15 01:54