《农产品》日报-20260115

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. Core Views Red Dates - The 2025/26 production season of red dates presents a pattern of "loose supply and stable-to-rising demand". Festival stocking shows periodic characteristics, and consumption may slightly recover under favorable macro - environment. However, low prices have limited stimulus on demand, and explosive growth is unlikely. The stable spot price supports the lower end of the futures price, while the hedging pressure above the futures price is relatively large, and the price oscillates in a low - level range [1]. Apples - In the short term, the futures price is supported by the low good - fruit rate and low inventory. With the approaching of the Spring Festival stocking season, market activity has increased. In the long - term, good - quality apples are in short supply with firm prices, while farmer - sourced apples with high cost - performance are scarce. High prices may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits (such as citrus) squeezes the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market oscillates at a high level, with the near - term contracts stronger than the far - term ones [3]. Oils - Palm oil: Concerns about Indonesia's temporary non - implementation of the B50 biodiesel policy and large inventory pressure in Malaysia may suppress the market. In China, the Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a volatile consolidation trend. Attention should be paid to whether it can effectively stand above 8750 yuan. - Soybean oil: The relationship between the US and Iran may affect international crude oil supply and the trend of vegetable oils as biodiesel raw materials. In China, factory soybean oil inventory has decreased, but the supply of soybeans is not short with the successful auction of 114,000 tons of soybeans by CGC. The long and short factors coexist, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to oscillate around 8000 yuan in the short term. - Rapeseed oil: Affected by the possible obstruction of Iran's crude oil exports and the nearly 3% jump in US crude oil, the rapeseed oil market reached the 900 - yuan mark in the morning. In the afternoon, it fell back to around 8900 yuan due to Indonesia's decision to raise the palm oil export tax and maintain the B40 policy. The overall market maintains a wide - range oscillation pattern. The upcoming Sino - Canadian talks make the rapeseed market cautious, with significant intraday fluctuations [5]. Corn - In the Northeast, the reluctant - to - sell sentiment is obvious, and the supply volume has no significant change. Downstream enterprises have started pre - holiday stocking, supporting the price to run strongly. In North China, the reluctance to sell high - quality grains is strong, and the number of trucks arriving at deep - processing plants remains low, with prices oscillating in a narrow range. On the demand side, the inventory at northern ports is low without obvious accumulation, deep - processing enterprises (especially in the Northeast) have low inventory and high stocking willingness, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and mainly replenish stocks on a rolling basis. On the policy side, the directional auction of imported corn and the competitive sales of corn continue, but the scale is limited and the auctions are highly successful. Overall, the tight supply of corn and the downstream's rigid demand for stocking strongly support the price, but the gradual release of policy - related corn also limits the price increase, and the market maintains a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the change in farmers' selling mentality and policy release [7]. Pigs - The spot price of pigs has returned to an oscillating pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. The supply in the North has decreased, while the demand in the South has declined significantly, with limited purchasing power, suppressing the spot price. Recently, there has been some second - fattening replenishment in some areas, but the overall enthusiasm is limited due to the current high pig prices. The market is betting on the pre - Spring Festival consumption, but it is expected that there will be a large - scale supply in mid - to - late January, with an expected increase in the supply from large - scale farms. Currently, the basis is strong, and the futures price has the impetus to repair upwards, but there is no obvious positive factor in the fundamentals. It is recommended to short at high levels after the market stabilizes [10]. Sugar - ICE raw sugar futures are falling. Favorable weather in Brazil has accelerated the harvesting progress, and the rainfall in the central - southern region since December is beneficial to the growth of sugarcane in the 2026/27 season, with the initial forecast of a 3% increase in the sugarcane yield per unit area. In India, the production is strong, while in Thailand, the sugar - making season progress is slow due to government bans on burning sugarcane and holiday shutdowns, resulting in a year - on - year decrease in sugar production. The raw sugar price is expected to oscillate weakly within a range. In China, the production and sales data of Guangxi and Yunnan are mixed, generally in line with market expectations. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, trading is good due to stocking demand, and enterprises mainly sell at appropriate prices. With the concentrated listing of new sugar, market participants are generally cautious, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate at a low level [13][14]. Meal Products - The USDA slightly increased the US soybean production and decreased the exports, leading to an increase in US soybean inventory and a correction in the market. In the short term, the CBOT main contract has strong support around 1050 cents, and the downward space is limited. In China, the speed of soybean purchases is fast, and the continuous supply of US soybeans and reserve auctions has maintained a loose spot market. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal remains at a high level, and auctions also suppress the market. The premium of auction transactions is small, and the market is resistant to high prices. However, the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low, and there is still speculation about customs clearance. The downward space of soybean meal is limited, and the upper limit is mainly affected by the policy. In the short term, the market sentiment is positive, and the futures price oscillates [15]. Eggs - The recent increase in egg prices has improved the breeding profitability, reducing the farmers' willingness to sell laying hens. The number of newly - laying hens has slightly increased, but due to the impact of weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. The market shows a structural differentiation. Considering factors such as increased production capacity and reduced culling, the overall supply is still in an oversupply stage. The demand is strongly supported by Spring Festival stocking, with increased procurement in all sectors, and the internal sales in production areas are strong, but transactions in high - price areas are cautious. According to the latest survey data, on January 14, 2026, the production - link inventory in China decreased by 17.78% to 0.37 days, and the circulation - link inventory decreased by 7.94% to 0.58 days. The Spring Festival stocking will continue to drive market demand. However, after the recent price increase, the market faces short - term digestion pressure, and there is a possibility of a slight price correction. Overall, the futures price is expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Cotton - ICE cotton futures are generally stable. The January USDA report shows that the 2025/26 US cotton supply - demand table in January has a double - decline in production and ending inventory compared to the December report. The drought index in US cotton - growing areas continues to rise, in line with the winter weak La Nina weather, but it is still early for sowing and remains to be observed. USDA export sales have been continuously declining, and export expectations may be lowered. It is expected that US cotton will maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The public inspection of Xinjiang cotton is progressing faster than previous years, and the commercial inventory is continuously increasing, showing short - term supply pressure. However, cotton enterprises have a strong willingness to hold prices as the inventory reduction speed is fast and the sales pressure is significantly reduced. However, the profits of Xinjiang textile enterprises and the cash flow of inland textile enterprises have been compressed to a low level, the positive factors in the industrial fundamentals have been fully priced in, and the widening of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference will gradually make it possible to import cotton with a 40% tariff. The negative factors for Zhengzhou cotton are gradually increasing, but overall, the short - term cotton price may enter an adjustment phase [18]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Red Dates - Futures prices: The main contract (red dates 2605) closed at 9130 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan or 0.77% from the previous day. Other contracts also showed different degrees of increase [1]. - Spot prices: The price of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates was 9500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.11% [1]. - Basis: The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates against the main contract was - 230 yuan/ton, a significant change [1]. - Inventory: The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 3483, up 102 or 3.02% [1]. Apples - Futures prices: The main contract (apple 2605) closed at 9934 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan or 1.59% from the previous day [3]. - Market arrivals: The arrivals at several fruit wholesale markets decreased, such as the Chalong Fruit Wholesale Market with a 14.29% decrease [3]. - Inventory: The national cold - storage inventory was 720.90 million tons, down 12.66 million tons or 1.73% [3]. Oils - Soybean oil: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8530 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.47%. The Y2605 futures price was 7986 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan or - 0.10%. The basis was 544 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan or 9.68% [5]. - Palm oil: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8858 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.68%. The P2605 futures price was 8778 yuan/ton, up 54 yuan or 0.62%. The basis was 50 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 13.64% [5]. - Rapeseed oil: The spot price of third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9940 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan or 0.40%. The OI605 futures price was 9017 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan or 0.41%. The basis was 923 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.33% [5]. Corn - Futures prices: The corn 2603 contract closed at 2272 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.53% [7]. - Spot prices: The FOB price at Jinzhou Port was 2345 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or - 0.21% [7]. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts was 38762, up 614 or 1.61% [7]. Pigs - Futures prices: The main contract (pigs 2605) closed at 12260 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan or 0.74% [10]. - Spot prices: The price in Henan was 13000 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [10]. - Inventory: The number of warehouse receipts was 855, remaining unchanged [10]. Sugar - Futures prices: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5299 yuan/ton, up 46 yuan or 0.88% [13]. - Spot prices: The price in Nanning was 5370 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan or 0.19% [13]. - Inventory: The industrial inventory in the country was 211 million tons, up 20.6 million tons or 10.82% [13]. Meal Products - Soybean meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 3120 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.64%. The M2605 futures price was 2751 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.36% [15]. - Rapeseed meal: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2370 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or - 0.84%. The RM2605 futures price was 2289 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan or - 1.08% [15]. Eggs - Futures prices: The egg 03 contract closed at 3007 yuan/500KG, up 17 yuan or 0.57% [17]. - Spot prices: The price in the egg - producing areas was 3.46 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan or 0.40% [17]. - Breeding data: The egg - to - feed ratio was 2.34, up 0.08 or 3.42%, and the breeding profit was - 21.81 yuan/feather, up 4.79 yuan or 18.01% [17]. Cotton - Futures prices: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14810 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan or 0.34% [18]. - Spot prices: The arrival price of Xinjiang's 3128B cotton at the factory was 15500 yuan/ton, up 217 yuan or 1.40% [18]. - Inventory: The commercial inventory was 578.47 million tons, up 110.11 million tons or 23.5% [18].