原油成品油早报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, crude oil rebounded, and geopolitical risks escalated. Over the weekend, the unstable situation in Iran continued. Trump received a briefing on military strike options against Iran but hasn't made a final decision on authorizing a strike. Israel is on high alert for the possibility of U.S. intervention in Iran, and Iran has warned that it will strike Israel and the U.S. if attacked. The Iranian president expressed willingness to meet with protest groups, showing a conciliatory tendency. If the U.S. launches a strike on Iran, oil prices may surge due to geopolitical risks. From a fundamental perspective, oil inventories increased this week, the Dubai monthly spread strengthened slightly after opening low, gasoline cracking strengthened while diesel cracking fluctuated, and European refinery profits weakened. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation, and the price center in the first quarter is expected to be high in the short - term [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Data - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, WTI crude oil rose from $57.76 to $62.02, an increase of $0.87; BRENT crude oil rose from $61.99 to $66.52, an increase of $1.05; DUBAI crude oil rose from $60.08 to $62.58, an increase of $0.80. Other related products also showed corresponding price changes [3] - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, SC crude oil decreased by $0.10, OMAN crude oil increased by $0.19, and the domestic gasoline price increased by 40 yuan. Other related domestic products also had price changes [3] - From January 8th to 14th, 2026, the price of Japanese naphtha CFR was not fully updated, the Singapore fuel oil 380CST had incomplete data, the main contract of SHFE FU increased by 125, the main contract of SHFE BU increased by 28, HH natural gas increased by $0.110, and BFO increased by $1.75 [3] 3.2 Daily News - Flightradar24 reported that Iran issued a navigation notice, restricting flights from entering its airspace without permission, with an effective period of slightly over two hours [3] - Trump said that Iran's "killing" has stopped, hinting at a possible suspension of military action against Iran. International oil prices dropped by 4% in the short - term. Trump also said that he will observe the situation before making a decision on military action against Iran [4] 3.3 Inventory - According to the EIA report, in the week ending January 9th, U.S. crude oil exports increased by 43,000 barrels per day to 4.306 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production decreased by 58,000 barrels to 13.753 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves increased by 3.391 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.81% increase [4] - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products was 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.14% decrease compared to the same period last year; the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 413.7 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [4][5] - In the week ending January 9th, U.S. commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 7.092 million barrels per day, an increase of 753,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week; EIA gasoline inventory was 8.977 million barrels (expected 3.565 million barrels, previous value 7.702 million barrels); EIA refined oil inventory was - 29,000 barrels (expected 512,000 barrels, previous value 5.594 million barrels) [5][6]