原木期货日报-20260115

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the report's industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current log market has weak supply and demand, with spot prices at a low level. In the Jiangsu region, due to low inventory, some specifications of spot goods are in short supply and prices have increased. The 03 contract has less inventory pressure due to low inventory and the expected decrease in later shipments. However, the demand remains weak, and the upward adjustment space is limited. Overall, there are insufficient contradictions, and the upward and downward driving forces are limited. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate within a range [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Prices - On January 14, 2026, the prices of log futures contracts showed different trends. The log 2603 contract closed at 779.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 5 yuan/cubic meter or 0.65% compared to the previous day; the log 2605 contract closed at 789.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 3 yuan/cubic meter or 0.38%; the log 2607 contract closed at 800.0 yuan/cubic meter, up 2 yuan/cubic meter or 0.25%. The log 2601 contract remained unchanged at 770.0 yuan/cubic meter. The basis of the main contract was -39.5, down 5 from the previous day [1]. - Among the spot prices, the prices of most types of logs in Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged, except for the 4A small radiata pine in Taicang Port, which increased by 10 yuan/cubic meter to 680 yuan/cubic meter, with a growth rate of 1.49%. The CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 110 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 124 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1]. 2. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - On January 15, 2026, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 6.970, down 0.004 from the previous day, with a change rate of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 755.07 yuan, down 0.48 yuan from the previous day, with a change rate of 0% [1]. 3. Supply: Monthly - As of December 31, the port back - haul volume was 191.4 ten thousand cubic meters, up 2.2 ten thousand cubic meters or 1.16% from November 30. The number of ships in the rock port was 52.0, up 3.0 or 6.12% from the previous period [1]. 4. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - As of January 9, the domestic coniferous log total inventory was 269 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 2 ten thousand cubic meters compared to January 2, with a growth rate of 0.75%. In Shandong, the inventory was 196.00 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 1.0 ten thousand cubic meters or 0.51% [1]. 5. Demand: Daily Average Out - bound Volume (Weekly) - As of January 9, the daily average out - bound volume of logs in China was 5.75 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 0.1 ten thousand cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a growth rate of 2%. In Shandong, it was 2.79 ten thousand cubic meters, a decrease of 0.10 ten thousand cubic meters or 3%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.35 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 0.18 ten thousand cubic meters or 8% [2]. 6. Forecast of Arrival Ships - From January 12 - 18, 2026, 15 New Zealand log ships are expected to arrive at 13 Chinese ports, an increase of 6 ships compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 67%. The total arrival volume is about 48.6 ten thousand cubic meters, an increase of 18.1 ten thousand cubic meters compared to the previous week, with a week - on - week increase of 59% [2].