国泰海通晨报-20260115

Group 1: Macroeconomic Research - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the December inflation in the US did not show the rebound that the market had feared, with the core CPI growth rate being lower than expected. The year-on-year CPI growth remained at 2.7%, unchanged from November, while the month-on-month growth was 0.3%, also unchanged from September. The core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.6%, slightly below the market expectation of 2.7% [1][2][3] - The structure of inflation shows weak performance in core goods, particularly due to second-hand vehicles, while core services have shown a general recovery. The month-on-month growth for core goods was 0%, and even excluding second-hand vehicles, the growth remained low. In contrast, the housing component rebounded from 0.2% in September to 0.4% in December [3][15] Group 2: Financial Engineering Research - The report suggests an overweight position in small-cap stocks for January based on quantitative model signals, while recommending an equal allocation between value and growth styles. The model signal for small-cap stocks was 0.17 at the end of December, indicating a favorable outlook [4][6] - The performance of style factors indicates that momentum and value factors yielded positive returns, while dividend factors showed negative returns. The report highlights that the model's return was 27.56%, with an excess return of 0.71% compared to the equal-weight benchmark [6][24] Group 3: Company Research - Haidilao - The report discusses Haidilao's recent management changes, with the founder taking over as CEO, which is expected to enhance employee motivation and boost investor confidence. The new board members have extensive experience within the company, contributing to operational and strategic development [8][10][22] - Haidilao's operational performance remains robust, with significant customer traffic reported during the New Year period, indicating strong demand. The company is also advancing its "Red Pomegranate" plan, which includes the launch of new dining concepts [11][23] - The investment recommendation for Haidilao is to maintain an "overweight" rating, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 being 42.36 billion, 47.41 billion, and 52.69 billion yuan respectively. The target price is set at 19.10 HKD, reflecting a valuation slightly above the industry average [9][21]