Report on Various Commodity Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific investment ratings are mentioned in the provided reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report - Red Dates: The 2025/26 production season of red dates presents a pattern of "loose supply and stable-to-increasing demand". Festival stockpiling shows periodic characteristics, and consumption may slightly recover under a favorable macro - environment. However, low prices have limited stimulation on demand. The stable spot - end price supports the lower limit of the futures price, but there is significant hedging pressure above, leading to low - level range - bound trading [1]. - Apples: In the short term, the futures market is supported by a low good - fruit rate and low inventory, and market activity increases with the approaching Spring Festival stockpiling season. In the long - term, good - quality apples are in short supply with firm prices, while farmer - produced apples with high cost - effectiveness are scarce. High prices may suppress consumption, and the price advantage of other fruits squeezes the apple market, resulting in large inventory pressure for ordinary apples. The futures market fluctuates at a high level, with the near - term prices stronger than the long - term ones [3]. - Oils: For palm oil, concerns about Indonesia's B50 biodiesel policy and large inventory pressure in Malaysia will suppress the market. The domestic Dalian palm oil futures market maintains a range - bound pattern. For soybean oil, the US - Iran relationship may affect international crude oil supply and the trend of vegetable oils. Domestic soybean supply is sufficient despite reduced factory inventory, and the May contract of Dalian soybean oil will continue to fluctuate around 8000 yuan. For rapeseed oil, it was boosted by potential Iranian oil export restrictions and then fell due to Indonesia's palm oil policy and cooling macro - sentiment, maintaining a wide - range oscillation. The spot market has high - level consolidation [5]. - Corn and Corn Starch: In the Northeast, there is obvious reluctance to sell, and downstream enterprises' pre - festival stockpiling supports prices. In North China, there is a strong reluctance to sell high - quality grains, and prices fluctuate narrowly. Demand - side shows low inventory in northern ports and deep - processing enterprises, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory. Policy - driven corn auctions continue but with limited scale. Overall, the corn market has support from tight supply and downstream demand but is restricted by policy - released corn, resulting in high - level range - bound trading [7]. - Pigs: The spot price of pigs has returned to a range - bound pattern. After the New Year's Day, market demand has significantly declined. Northern pig sales have decreased, while southern demand has dropped notably. Although there is still some second - fattening restocking locally, the overall enthusiasm is limited due to high pig prices. The market anticipates Spring Festival consumption, but with expected large - scale sales in mid - to - late January, the supply in January is relatively loose. The basis is strong, and the futures price has upward - correction momentum, but there is no obvious fundamental positive factor, so it is recommended to short after the price stabilizes [10]. - Sugar: ICE raw sugar futures are in a weak range - bound trend. Favorable weather in Brazil has accelerated the harvest, and the rainfall in December is beneficial for the next season's cane growth. India's sugar production is strong, while Thailand's sugar - making progress is slow. Domestically, the production and sales data in Guangxi and Yunnan are a mix of positive and negative factors, in line with market expectations. With the approaching Spring Festival, trading is fair due to stockpiling demand, and enterprises mainly sell at current prices. New domestic sugar is on the market in large quantities, and sugar prices are expected to remain low - level range - bound [13][14]. - Meals: The USDA slightly increased the US soybean production, decreased exports, and increased the US soybean inventory, causing the market to correct. However, CBOT has strong support around 1050 cents. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are still high, and auctions suppress the market. Although the expected arrival volume in the first quarter is low and there is uncertainty in the arrival schedule, there is still room for speculation on customs clearance. The downside of soybean meal is limited, and the upside is mainly affected by policy. The market sentiment is positive in the short term, and the futures price maintains range - bound trading [15]. - Eggs: The recent increase in egg prices has improved breeding profits, reducing farmers' willingness to sell laying hens and slightly decreasing the number of culled chickens. The number of newly - laid hens has increased slightly, but due to weather, the egg weight has increased rapidly, resulting in a significant shortage of small - and medium - sized eggs compared to large - sized eggs. The overall supply is still in an oversupply stage. Spring Festival stockpiling drives demand, but the high - price area is cautious. After the recent price increase, the market faces short - term digestion pressure, and the futures price is expected to remain low - level range - bound [17]. - Cotton: ICE cotton futures are generally stable. The January USDA report shows a double - decline in US cotton production and ending stocks. The drought index in US cotton - growing areas is rising, and USDA export sales are continuously declining, with export expectations likely to be lowered. In Xinjiang, the cotton inspection progress is faster than usual, and commercial inventory is rising, showing short - term supply pressure. However, cotton enterprises have strong price - holding intentions as they have a fast de - stocking speed and reduced sales pressure. But Xinjiang textile enterprises' profits and inland textile enterprises' cash flow have been compressed, and the widening of the domestic - foreign cotton price difference may increase the competitiveness of imported cotton. Overall, short - term cotton prices may enter an adjustment phase [18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Red Dates - Futures Prices: The main contract (Red Dates 2605) rose from 9060 to 9130, an increase of 70 or 0.77%. Other contracts also had varying degrees of increase [1]. - Spot Prices: Cangzhou's special - grade, first - grade, and second - grade spot prices were stable, with the special - grade price rising slightly by 0.11% [1]. - Basis and Other Indicators: The basis of Cangzhou's special - grade red dates to the main contract decreased by 64.71%, and the position decreased by 0.61%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased slightly by 0.07%, while the effective forecast increased by 26.00%, and the total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts increased by 3.02% [1]. Apples - Futures Prices: The main contract (Apple 2605) rose from 9779 to 9934, an increase of 155 or 1.59%. The Apple 2610 contract fell by 0.67% [3]. - Spot - Related Indicators: The basis decreased by 9.82%, and the 5 - 10 spread increased by 17.25%. The arrival volume at several fruit wholesale markets decreased, while the futures position increased by 3.80%. The national cold - storage inventory decreased by 1.73%, the factory - warehouse delivery profit decreased by 10.99%, and the on - disk profit decreased by 6.35% [3]. Oils - Soybean Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.47%, the futures price (Y2605) decreased by 0.10%, and the basis increased by 9.68%. The number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.17% [5]. - Palm Oil: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 0.68%, the futures price (P2605) increased by 0.62%, and the basis increased by 13.64%. The on - disk import cost decreased by 0.38%, the on - disk import profit increased by 19.74%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 20.72% [5]. - Rapeseed Oil: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.40%, the futures price (OI605) increased by 0.41%, and the basis increased by 0.33%. The number of warehouse receipts increased by 330 [5]. - Spreads: There were changes in various spreads such as the inter - period spreads of different oils and the spot and futures spreads between different oils [5]. Corn and Corn Starch - Corn: The Corn 2603 price decreased by 0.53%, the basis increased by 10.61%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 375.00%. The north - south trade profit increased by 45.45%, the import profit decreased by 1.95%, the number of remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises increased by 1.37%, the position decreased by 1.56%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 1.61% [7]. - Corn Starch: The Corn Starch 2603 price decreased by 0.70%, the basis increased by 11.18%, the 3 - 7 spread decreased by 38.46%, the 03 on - disk spread between starch and corn decreased by 2.17%, the position increased by 0.26%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [7]. Pigs - Futures Indicators: The main - contract basis decreased by 17.84%, the Pig 2605 contract increased by 0.74%, the Pig 2603 contract increased by 1.82%, the 3 - 5 spread increased by 33.33%, the main - contract position increased by 4.63%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [10]. - Spot Prices: Spot prices in various regions such as Henan, Shandong, and Sichuan were stable [10]. - Spot Indicators: The sample - point slaughter volume increased by 0.13%, the weekly white - strip price increased by 6.45%, the weekly piglet price increased by 0.92%, the weekly sow price increased slightly by 0.03%, the weekly出栏 weight decreased by 0.09%, the weekly self - breeding profit decreased by 66.64%, the weekly purchased - breeding profit increased by 95.22%, and the monthly fertile sow inventory decreased by 1.12% [10]. Sugar - Futures Market: The Sugar 2605 contract increased by 0.88%, the Sugar 2609 contract increased by 0.72%, the ICE raw sugar main contract increased by 0.13%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 61.54%, the main - contract position decreased by 0.23%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 2.53%, and the effective forecast decreased by 11.60% [13]. - Spot Market: The spot price in Nanning increased by 0.19%, the price in Kunming remained unchanged, the Nanning basis decreased by 33.64%, the Kunming basis decreased by 200.00%, the price of Brazilian imported sugar (within quota) increased by 0.27%, and the price (outside quota) increased by 0.29% [13]. - Industry Situation: The national sugar production and sales decreased year - on - year, the national and Guangxi sugar sales rates decreased, the national industrial inventory increased, the Guangxi industrial inventory decreased, and the sugar import volume decreased by 16.98% [13]. Meals - Soybean Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.64%, the futures price (M2605) decreased by 0.36%, the basis decreased by 2.64%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Brazilian February shipments decreased by 13.1%, and the number of warehouse receipts increased by 19.7% [15]. - Rapeseed Meal: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.84%, the futures price (RM2605) decreased by 1.08%, the basis increased by 6.58%, the on - disk import crushing profit for Canadian March shipments decreased by 21.51%, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [15]. - Soybeans: The spot price of Harbin soybeans remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - one contract decreased by 0.14%, the basis increased by 1.82%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu remained unchanged, the futures price of the main soybean - two contract decreased by 0.54%, the basis increased by 4.15%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 0.05% [15]. - Spreads: There were changes in various spreads such as inter - period spreads and cross - commodity spreads [15]. Eggs - Futures Prices: The Egg 03 contract increased by 0.57%, and the Egg 04 contract remained unchanged [17]. - Spot - Related Indicators: The egg - producing area price increased by 0.40%, the basis decreased by 0.72%, the 3 - 4 spread increased by 5.99%. The price of egg - laying chicken seedlings increased by 3.57%, the price of culled chickens increased by 3.29%, the egg - feed ratio increased by 3.42%, and the breeding profit increased by 18.01% [17]. Cotton - Futures Market: The Cotton 2605 contract increased by 0.34%, the Cotton 2609 contract increased by 0.10%, the ICE US cotton main contract decreased by 0.02%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 22.58%, the main - contract position increased by 0.62%, the number of warehouse receipts increased by 5.07%, and the effective forecast decreased by 5.57% [18]. - Spot Market: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B increased by 1.40%, the CC Index: 3128B increased by 1.18%, the FC Index: M: 1% remained unchanged, and the basis of 3128B to the 05 and 09 contracts increased [18]. - Industry Situation: The commercial inventory increased by 23.5%, the industrial inventory decreased by 0.2%, the import volume increased by 33.3%, the bonded - area inventory decreased by 15.8%, the yarn inventory days decreased by 4.6%, the spinning enterprise C32s immediate processing profit decreased by 10.0%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of clothing, footwear, and textile products decreased by 44.4%, the monthly year - on - year growth rate of textile yarn, fabric, and product exports decreased by 530.5%, and the export volume of clothing and clothing accessories increased by 15.7% [18].
农产品期货日报-20260115
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2026-01-15 03:09