国投证券(香港)晨会早报-20260115

Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market continued its upward trend, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.56%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 0.32%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up by 0.66% [2] - Market sentiment remains active, with capital focusing on technology sectors, leading to a total trading volume of HKD 340.4 billion, while the short-selling amount decreased to 14.12% of total trading [2] - Southbound funds continued to show net inflows, with approximately HKD 2.9 billion entering the market, particularly favoring Tencent Holdings, Alibaba Health, and Alibaba Group [2] Group 2: AI Sector Performance - AI-related sectors emerged as the market's focal point, with internet healthcare and AI medical stocks leading the gains; Alibaba Health surged nearly 19% due to brand upgrades and innovative drug launches [3] - The enthusiasm for AI applications fueled strong performances in short video, cloud computing, SaaS, and mobile gaming sectors, with notable gains in stocks like Weimob and Alibaba [3] - The market's excitement around AI commercialization and the upcoming releases of new applications and models further solidified the technology sector's position as a key driver for the year [3] Group 3: U.S. Banking Sector Insights - The four major U.S. banks reported Q4 earnings, indicating a transition from a "rate fluctuation adaptation period" to a "operating leverage release period," benefiting from last year's strong stock market [4] - All four banks provided positive guidance for net interest income (NII) growth of 5-10% for 2026, reflecting a constructive outlook on the economy and consumer spending resilience [4][5] - Despite stock price declines post-earnings, the banks remain optimistic about capital markets and non-interest income as key growth drivers moving forward [5] Group 4: Atour's Business Model and Growth - Atour (ATAT.US) employs a "hotel + retail" dual-driven strategy, targeting the mid-to-high-end market with unique hotel designs and a growing membership base [7] - The membership system has expanded significantly, growing from 25 million in 2020 to over 100 million by September 2025, enhancing customer retention and reducing acquisition costs [7] - The retail segment has become a new growth engine, with revenue increasing from RMB 64 million in 2019 to RMB 2.2 billion in 2024, driven by successful product launches [8] Group 5: Industry Trends and Projections - The hotel industry is experiencing a strong rebound, with revenues increasing by 38% to RMB 531.4 billion in 2023, although growth is expected to slow to 5% in 2024 [8] - The competitive landscape is intensifying, with average room rates projected to decline in 2024 and 2025, but the rate of decline is expected to narrow [8] - The report anticipates continued growth for Atour, projecting net profits of RMB 1.62 billion, RMB 2.06 billion, and RMB 2.50 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [9]