从银价波动看“变乱交织、动荡加剧”

Group 1: Market Trends - Recent silver price fluctuations indicate increased volatility and a lack of single-factor explanations for price movements[1] - Major commodity prices are experiencing frequent adjustments, reflecting a transition from old equilibrium to a new, unstable state[1] - The price adjustment frequency has increased, suggesting that the market is still calibrating its long-term structure[1] Group 2: Structural Changes - Since 2016, the volatility of major commodity price indices has shown a synchronized increase, particularly around 2020 and 2022[2] - The global manufacturing system is undergoing restructuring, with new energy transitions and digital expansions affecting demand for industrial materials[3] - The cost structure is changing due to decreased elasticity in traditional energy supply and the sensitivity of energy prices to geopolitical and policy expectations[3] Group 3: Pricing Dynamics - Supply constraints and demand differentiation have led to more pronounced price jumps in the commodity market[7] - The relationship between inventory levels and price changes has shown instability, indicating that single supply-demand signals are insufficient for price explanations[7] - Financial participation in the market has intensified, altering pricing mechanisms and increasing sensitivity to marginal changes[8]