合成橡胶产业日报-20260115

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a daily report on the synthetic rubber industry dated January 15, 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract for synthetic rubber was 12,190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan [2] - The main contract's open interest for synthetic rubber was 99,182 contracts, a decrease of 1,394 contracts [2] - The spread between the second and third contracts of synthetic rubber was -60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2] - The total warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber were 6,530 tons, unchanged [2] Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 12,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The mainstream price of BR9000 cis - butadiene rubber from Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong was 12,050 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan [2] - The basis of synthetic rubber was -190 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan [2] - Brent crude oil was at 66.52 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.05 dollars [2] - The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 725 dollars/ton [2] - The price of naphtha CFR Japan was 560.25 dollars/ton [2] - The intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 1,140 dollars/ton [2] - WTI crude oil was at 62.02 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.87 dollars [2] - The mainstream price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 9,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 275 yuan [2] Group 3: Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene was 15.93 million tons/week, unchanged [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 71.31%, an increase of 0.14 percentage points [2] - The port inventory of butadiene was 41,300 tons, a decrease of 3,400 tons [2] - The daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric - vacuum distillation units was 54.57%, a decrease of 0.37 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 13.01 million tons, a decrease of 0.75 million tons [2] - The weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 79.15%, an increase of 1.97 percentage points [2] - The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was -335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 669 yuan/ton [2] - The weekly social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 3.31 million tons, a decrease of 0.14 million tons [2] - The weekly manufacturer inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 26,350 tons, an increase of 50 tons [2] - The weekly trader inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 6,770 tons, a decrease of 410 tons [2] Group 4: Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 65.89%, a decrease of 3.46 percentage points [2] - The weekly operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 58.02%, a decrease of 1.53 percentage points [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires was 13.01 million pieces, an increase of 590,000 pieces [2] - The monthly output of semi - steel tires was 58.31 million pieces, an increase of 6.63 million pieces [2] - The weekly inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 44.62 days, a decrease of 2.43 days [2] - The weekly inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 47.36 days, an increase of 0.31 days [2] Group 5: Industry News - As of January 15, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.53%, a month - on - month increase of 8.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 5.03 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of Chinese all - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.02%, a month - on - month increase of 7.52 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 5.21 percentage points. Output increased as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilized, and some semi - steel tire enterprises had more foreign trade orders [2] - In December, the output of cis - butadiene rubber was 14.36 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.35 million tons (10.38%) and a year - on - year increase of 1.97%. The capacity utilization rate was 72.13%, a 4.65 - percentage - point increase from the previous month and a 2.68 - percentage - point decrease from the same period last year [2] - As of January 14, the domestic cis - butadiene rubber inventory was 3.49 million tons, a 0.18 - million - ton (5.50%) increase from the previous period [2] Group 6: Core View - The production cost of cis - butadiene rubber has increased significantly due to strong demand for raw material butadiene and export deal rumors, but downstream resistance to high prices has led to a difference in negotiations. The inventory of producers and traders has increased, and there is no sign of supply reduction in the short term. The downstream end lacks the willingness to stock up at high prices, and the inventory of producers and traders is expected to remain high [2] - The operating rate of domestic tire enterprises has increased significantly this week as the production of overhauled enterprises stabilizes. In the short term, some semi - steel tire enterprises will maintain a high operating rate supported by foreign trade orders, and the overall production schedule is expected to be stable. All - steel tire enterprises still control production to manage inventory [2] - The BR2603 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,900 - 12,650 yuan/ton in the short term [2]