瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260115

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The current domestic natural rubber main producing areas are in the off - season, while the Thai producing area is still in the peak production season. Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has continued to accumulate. The total inventory accumulation rate has narrowed month - on - month, but the inventory accumulation intensity remains high. The inflow of goods at Qingdao Port shows a seasonal reduction trend, with the overall inflow decreasing month - on - month, and the downstream rigid demand improving, increasing the overall outflow. In terms of demand, the operating rates of domestic tire enterprises have increased significantly month - on - month. In the short term, the output of some semi - steel tire enterprises will remain high due to the support of foreign trade orders, and the overall equipment production schedule is expected to remain basically stable. For all - steel tire enterprises, there is still a phenomenon of production control to manage inventory. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15750 - 16400 in the short term, and the nr2603 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12700 - 13250 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 15995 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the closing price of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 12850 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan. The Shanghai rubber 5 - 9 spread is 30 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 20 - number rubber 2 - 3 spread is - 10 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3145 yuan/ton, unchanged. The position of the Shanghai rubber main contract is 198380 lots, down 1357 lots; the position of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 69423 lots, down 1250 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 53013 lots, up 2438 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 11091 lots, up 2003 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 105590 tons, unchanged; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 57758 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15650 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1935 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1925 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15150 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15100 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 12100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 345 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan; the non - standard product basis of the Shanghai rubber main contract is - 1010 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13428 yuan/ton, up 108 yuan; the basis of the 20 - number rubber main contract is 578 yuan/ton, up 273 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (smoked sheet) is 60.65 Thai baht/kg, up 0.65 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (film) is 57.05 Thai baht/kg, up 0.7 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber (glue) is 58 Thai baht/kg, up 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber (cup lump) is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 24 US dollars/ton, up 21 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 16.88 million tons, up 4.27 million tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 30.22 million tons, up 4.58 million tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of all - steel tires is 58.02%, down 1.53 percentage points; the operating rate of semi - steel tires is 65.89%, down 3.46 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 44.62 days, down 2.43 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 47.36 days, up 0.31 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 0.59 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The historical 20 - day volatility of the underlying is 14.47%, up 0.26 percentage points; the historical 40 - day volatility of the underlying is 13.75%, up 0.21 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 22.9%, up 0.62 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 22.91%, up 0.64 percentage points [2] 3.6 Industry News - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, China's heavy - truck market ended with nearly 1.14 million vehicles. As of January 11, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 568,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19,800 tons, an increase of 3.62%. The bonded area inventory was 93,500 tons, an increase of 6.14%; the general trade inventory was 474,700 tons, an increase of 3.13% [2]