瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20260115

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The overall data of the domestic sugar market is neutral to bearish, but the market's expectation of a decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market. Short - term sugar prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar is 5280 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan; the main contract position volume is 425,271 lots, down 3,694 lots; the warehouse receipt quantity is 14,126 pieces, up 4,387 pieces; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 755 pieces, down 1,074 pieces; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 67,530 lots [2] 现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4002 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4053 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) is 5068 yuan/ton; that of imported Thai sugar is 5134 yuan/ton; the spot price of sugar in Yunnan Kunming is 5215 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; in Guangxi Nanning is 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Guangxi Liuzhou is 5380 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, up 5.24 thousand hectares [2] 产业情况 - The cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi is 8.94 million tons; the cumulative production volume of cane sugar in Yunnan is 4.48 million tons; Brazil's total sugar export volume is 2.913 billion tons, down 389 thousand tons; the monthly import volume of sugar is 440 thousand tons, down 310 thousand tons; the cumulative import volume is 4.34 billion tons, up 440 thousand tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly production volume of refined sugar is 1.303 billion tons, up 420 thousand tons; the monthly production volume of soft drinks is 10.457 billion tons, down 505 thousand tons [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 9.39%, up 0.15%; that of at - the - money put options is 9.39%, up 0.15%; the 20 - day historical volatility is 11.2%, up 0.37%; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.84%, up 0.21% [2] Industry News - Brazil exported 740.5 thousand tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 123.4 thousand tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 93.7 thousand tons in January of the previous year. The total export volume in January of the previous year was 2.062 billion tons. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) fell 0.21 cents or 1.40% to settle at 14.68 cents per pound [2] 观点总结 - In December, the sugar production in Guangxi was 1.808 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 431 thousand tons, and the sales volume was 795.4 thousand tons, a year - on - year decrease of 551.8 thousand tons. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar production in Yunnan was 392.3 thousand tons, higher than 326.9 thousand tons in the same period of the previous season; the cumulative sales volume was 281.4 thousand tons, compared with 267.1 thousand tons in the same period last year [2]